Saving the Party

So here we are less than 1 year before the 2015 general election only 8% in the polls and looking like the beneficiaries of a voteless recovery. Here are the options for the party:
Immediate Commitments for the 2015 manifesto

1. Ditch HS2 - worth about £80 billion saving for investment in Renewables, tax cuts, and scrapping the hated Tuition Fees. - Probably worth about 2% points
2. Ditch Nick Clegg - despite having the arguments over Europe, Clegg couldn't win an honesty debate against the slimy and untrustworthy Nigel Farage so Clegg is clearly now part of the problem for the party - toxic and a drag on party recovery. Time to deploy a new leader - Tim Farron, Vince Cable or Jo Swinson.  - - Probably worth about 3% points
3. Ditch Tuition Fees - a toxic issue with under 35's and parents of under 25's. - Probably worth about 5% points
4. Ditch the coalition now - make the Conservatives a lame duck government - Lib Dems could cross the floor but keep the Government going on a lifesupport vote by vote basis. - Probably worth about 5% points
5. Ditch Ofsted and abandon all support for Gove, Free Schools and all his works - worth 3% -the teacher vote

end result 26 % poll vote in 2015.

What about the other parties - what could the Tories do? - Morph into UKIP and advocate an immediate 2015 referendum and exit from Europe - worth about 10-15% , scrap HS2 - 5% - result 37%

Labour options - drop HS2 - worth about 5% points, bring back Milliband the elder from USA (2%), Support a referendum (5%) - result 42%

All to play for then - not over yet.

HS2 London-Leeds-Edinburgh direct

The more you study the existing HS2 phase one and phase two routes you sooner you realise that the whole route has been drawn up by a civil servant with a red crayon. The 225 mph train will take a elongated 256 miles to travel from Leeds to London over a distance of 168 miles by straight line. My suggestion is to cut out Birmingham altogether where people can already reach London in under an hour and take a straight or straightish line from Leeds south to London, in 168 miles which could be travelled in a staggering 45 minutes, and 162 miles north to Edinburgh which would take another 45 minutes. HS2 phase one would start in Leeds and travel south to London over the East of England using Agricultural Land and away from Cities and Towns, and Likewise for HS2 Phase two striking South from Edinburgh.


The Route

Mori Polls show Lib Dems ahead of UKIP

AN IPSOS-MORI poll published today in the London Evening Standard shows that the Lib Dems are winning the battle against the reactionary forces of UKIP. The party rose in the polls up 1% to 13% ahead of UKIP on 11%.  Labour  continues to lose support down 3%.The party is gradually regaining lost supporters who defected to Labour and are returning to party as it debates Nigel Farage on the IN/OUT referendum. We are now only 4 points down against the party's support in February 2009 of 17% and the support is on a similar trajectory which saw support strength towards the election when the party polled 23%.

The Crimea Crisis - understanding Russia and opposing aggression

It is 100 years from the First World War, where an ethnic dispute in Eastern Europe dragged the world into war. It is 75 years since Nazi & Soviet
aggression in Eastern Europe dragged the world into the Second World War. All nations must look calmly and with understanding and determination that aggression is not rewarded and that minorities, democracy and self-determination are protected.
Russia's concerns about Ukrainian fascists are not without substance, however the Use of Military force to annex and intimidate democracies is not acceptable.
I have 3 suggestions to steer a course of respect and cooperation between Russia and the World.
FIRSTLY
a) An acknowledgement that Russia's concerns are legitimate and that fast moving events in Kiev have alarmed all policy makers.
b) A commitment by Kiev to exclude and confront Ukrainian Fascists such as Svoboda.

c) A recognition in the UK, US and Europe about the alarm the rise of Ultra Right and Anti-European "Freedom" type parties  such as Golden Dawn in Greece, National Front in France, UKIP in the UK and others in Hungary which is being perceived as a Rise in Fascism in Europe by Russia.
d) Real concern in Moscow about the potential of Ultra-Nationalists taking power in Russia to mirror the events in Ukraine.
d) A realisation that Europe and America signed up for a Power-Sharing agreement in Kiev which then collapsed when the Ukrainian president fled which caused the coming to power of Ukrainian democrats.

SECONDLY
a) The US and Europe to table a proposal to seek Russian agreement that the UN Security Council approve the sending a UN Peace Keeping Force to Crimea to replace Russian(Militia) troops.
b) A UN plebiscite be held to approve Crimea move to International UN Control
c) Sending of UN Peacekeepers to Ukraine/Russia border

THIRDLY
a) An international UN commission to establish the future status of the Crimea.
b) Economic and Asset freezing if Russia opposes a negotiated settlement to the Issue.
c) If Russia annexes further Ukraine territory and refuses negotiated agreement, negotiations opened to allow accession of the Ukraine to partial associate NATO membership to allow military defence of a defined core-military defence area for the Western part of Ukraine covering Ukrainian speaking majority areas.
d) Ultimately a deal with Russia which acknowledges the fact of the need to protect Russian minorities might include a trade off on Syria where Russia would support real efforts to change the Assad regime and help humanitarian efforts in the Syrian Civil War while preventing the outbreak of a Ukraine Civil War.

Liberal Democrats against HS2

The controversy around HS2 continues to rage and why not? A commitment to High Speed Rail was clearly stated in both the Conservative and Labour 2010 Election Manifestos but was not part of the 2010 Liberal Democrat General Election Manifesto. It found it's way into the Coalition Agreement because it was part of Conservative Policy.
Some Interesting facts to ponder:

• Projected HS2  Cost £40 billion - miles of track 330 miles which equates to £121m per mile of track
• Real probable cost of HS2 £80 billion takes the cost per mile to £242 million per mile of track.
• Over half a million homes will be blighted and need £14billion in compensation
• The scheme could cost the coalition parties a million votes in 2015.

Compare that to real alternative to North-South transport infrastructure - the cancelled East Coast Motorway which could make an immediate contribution to GNP growth and promote economic growth in the poor performing Eastern Part of UK - Eastern Scotland, NE, Humberside, Lincolnshire, East Anglia.

Such a vital link would cost a mere £24 million per mile and make a contribution as great as HS2, lowering transportation costs for the British Food Industry and Manufacturing and boosting exports.

Perhaps if we need to consider that a High Speed Rail scheme is necessary (and I'm not convinced) then why not look at reopening the long closed victorian Grand Central Railway closed by Dr Beeching in the 1960's. 

Labour MP for Luton North Kelvin Hopkins advocated such a step and the scheme could provide an affordable HS2 for a mere £6 billions - perhaps 10% of the current £60-80 billions HS2 white elephant scheme!

Clearly the commitment to the current HS2 will lose millions of voters for both the Conservatives to UKIP (who are opposed) and Labour (who are in favour but ambivalent and my look at the cheaper and better Grand Central route) 

A Second alternative which has a great deal to say for it is HS2 PLAN B

This is an imaginative route which would be a Northern Cross rail and would take the route away from Wakefield. 

Syria - The Need to boycott those who bankroll genocide

The Chemical attack on Syrian civilians - 1300 women and children is a tipping point which calls out for Global action. Military force is a last resort which will only see more violence and death of innocents. A moral campaign across the world in all public opinion areas, religious,political, economic and consumer to boycott an organisation or country which bankrolls, endorses or supports genocide in Syria.
What is important is that all the major powers find a way of ending violence and supporting human rights. A coalition of hope should seek a de-escalation of arms supply on all sides and UN and Arab League action to endorse this. Syria needs stability, moderation, peace and human rights.
A time for moral outrage, determination for those guilty of war crimes to be brought to trial and for consumers to stop buying products from those who bankroll genocide. If the Syrian regime is guilty of this crime against the world, then the countries like Russia which bankroll and arm that regime should feel the ire of global consumer opinion. Russian gas companies should see a consumer boycott.Let Global consumers and Global suppliers put and end to this horror.

Russia Arms Syria

Unacceptable Horror

 

Margaret Thatcher - Last words

Spot the Fascist

The Death of Margaret Thatcher this week has highlighted the deep divisions the 11 plus years of her Premiership left in Britain, and the differing opinions of the Iron Lady around the world. In an ICM opinion poll in the Guardian Newspaper - stark divisions in Britain were quantified. Whilst 60% of  those polled in the South rated Thatcher as having been "good" for Britain, only 47% in the North agreed with 34% in Wales and 23% in Scotland - opening old wounds as those in London try and make a spectacle of her funeral at St Pauls Cathedral. Many of the Thatcherite "reforms" still command support such as

• Council House Sales          65%  (For)   24% Against
• Taking on Trade Unions    50%   (For)  34% Against
• Trident Nuclear Deterrent  40%  (For)   28% Against
• Anti-Europe                      38% (For)    39% Against
• Income Tax/Vat changes   38% (For)    38% Against
• Privisation                         35% (For)    49% Against
• Inflation over Jobs            33% (For)     41% Against
• Tax Cuts for Rich             28% (For)     47% Against 
• Poll Tax                           14% (For)     70% Against

People may question why £8-10 million pounds is being squandered at a time of Austerity for a State Funeral in all but name. Questions may be asked about the breach of Constitutional protocol which will see the Queen attending what is a politically divisive funeral. For the many millions of British families adversely affected by Thatcherism during the 1980's and 1990's - in the ex-Coalfields of the North, the ex-Manufacturing cities and in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland - Thatcher is still (and rightly) a figure of hate and loathing.

None can deny that in retaking the Falklands (having left the Islands unprotected in the first place) and opposing Soviet Communism she scores highly on Foreign Policy. However on the damage done to relations with Europe, the  wrecking of the Manufacturing economy in preference to the Casino City Economy and the damage to the society she denied existed she rightly is denied a State Funeral. She saw herself in the mantle of Sir Winston Churchill who was awarded the honour of a state funeral. Churchill was however a figure who was capable of uniting the nation at time of national crisis behind a line of principled opposition to Nazi tyranny against more expedient lines advocated by appeasers such as Neville Chamberlain. Churchill unlike Chamberlain was able to rally the nation behind his premiership which included a coalition of Liberals and Labour. Thatcher might have led the country during the Falklands but she was incapable of uniting the nation in such a coalition. Interestingly she came from the same political wing of the Conservative Party that backed Neville Chamberlain and opposed Churchill. Britain might have stood alone in 1940, but Churchill did not, Thatcher would have stood alone and not been able to carry the country with her.

The backlash to the attempts to re-write history have created a gallows humour which is not edifying - "Ding Dong the Witch is Dead " - heading the Charts, "Rejoice" Street Parties, or Tweets of "Gotcha"  - Jokes of burial at sea off the Malvinas etc but real questions about her politics are being raised. In Australia - Bob Carr tells  of her alleged racist views in full earshot of his Asian wife. We remind ourselves of her personal friendship with the Fascist monster Pinochet to whom she gave sanctuary instead of justice to the victims of torture, of her describing Nelson Mandela as a Communist Terrorist, of her support to South Africa and the views of her pro-South Africa partner Denis. The Spotlight is being shone on many of Thatchers supporters and backers who used here for their own nefarious purposes.

Personally I found the resurrection of the Iron Lady by Meryl Streep far more nauseating, but when Childrens Heart Hospitals are being closed why not blow £10 million to say farewell to someone who remains for many a hate figure. 

Sunday Telegraph predicts Lib Dem Revival

An opinion poll commissioned by the Sunday Telegraph points to the Lib-Dems achieving 18% at the 2015 General Election. It clearly shows a general revival in expectations of Lib Dem support in 2015 along with pressure on the Conservatives in 2015 from UKIP. Labour is the most likely winner in 2015, yet a party led by Ed Milliband is unlikely to command a majority of public confidence in 2015. With a strong showing from UKIP, the Conservative manifesto in 2015 will seek to appeal to UKIP voters just as the Labour manifesto will seek to attract disaffected Lib Dem voters. This positioning in the event of hung parliament will propell opinion into a Lib-Lab coalition with a Tory-UKIP opposition.

It may well be that Labour secures a Blairite Majority of 162 under First past the post, with Lib Dem support similar to the 1997-2000 period.

It is likely that the 2015-2020 period will show a Lib Dem-Green-labour alliance in opposition to Con-UKIP.

Eastleigh saves the day

The electors of Eastleigh have given the Liberal Democrats a continuance of the coalition but also a warning that 2015 will see a significant protest vote for UKIP and the real possibility of a hung parliament.

It is most likely that Labour will be returned to run the next government but they may lack a working majority. Cooperation between Labour and the Lib Dems over the Leveson Vote on March 16th will herald the way for future Lib-Lab arrangements over opposition to Conservative Austerity and the promotion of a practical plan for economic growth, following another failed Osborne Budget. A growing consensus between Bank of England Governor, Vince Cable, Ed Balls and leading financial journals such as the Economist and the Financial Times will see a 2 fold plan to lower the deficit and stimulate growth.

Areas for Budget Cuts

• Switching major government purchases towards a "Buy British" - increasing the % of government spending to UK owned and based companies, especially SMEs in preference to US, Chinese, and European corporations
• Maintaining spend on employees whilst tackling waste in all government departments including IT spend, NHS waste 
• Relocation government jobs out of the expensive South East and London towards Northern England and Wales where salary costs are 50% the London average. Major sell off of land, government buildings and real estate in London which raises £500 billion. Relocation of Houses of Parliament from London, closure of MOD offices in London. 
• Closure of all Job Centres
• Tobacco Duty raised by 50%
• Supermarket Alcohol Duty of 50 p per unit
• HS2 Scrapped
• Trident Replacement scrapped
• Banking Reorganisation scrapped, Banks shares given to public.
• Smoking Ban to be amended to ban smoking in presence of children, and allow smokers rooms (with air extraction) in pubs, smoking banned in beer gardens and public streets.

Areas for economic stimulus

• Cut in Fuel Duty takes 10p off petrol and stimulates growth while cutting inflation
• Ending of Job Seekers allowance which is replaced by Payroll Work Experience Credit paid to employers which are given one unemployed person per company.
• Sole Trader Corporation Tax Rate reduced to 10%
• Limited Company Small Business Corporation Tax Rate reduced to 15%
• All Social Housing and Government buildings to be insulated and given solar panels 
• Stamp Duty scrapped
• Employers National Insurance Holiday paid by Mansion Tax on £2m houses
• VAT Cut to 17.5 % paid by ending zero rating on books and food and extending VAT to all businesses.
• Infrastructure projects - Severn Barrage, Electric Car points
• All UK businesses to be assisted to employ, export and carry out e-business.

We're not in it together, try I'm alright jack

George Osborne's lying slogan "We're in this together" can be more truthfully translated as "I'm alright Jack". The Autumn Statement is an admission of failure, which has made necessary a raid on 4G funds to disguise a rise in the deficit and eyewatering levels of UK debt. Britain will shortly lose the cherished AAA rating. It is clear that Austerity Britain is a smoke screen for a stealth Conservative agenda to:

• Shrink the state
• Weaken trade unions
• Roll back Health and Safety
• Roll back Employment rights
• Roll back Human Rights
• Restore Private and Grammar School education
• Destroy the NHS
• Gerrymander UK Democracy through boundary change and Scottish Independence to ensure tory dominance
• Smash the Liberal Democrats and steal their support
• Take Britain out of Europe

SHAME ON THEM
Nevertheless - industry will have been helped and consumers cheered by a freeze in fuel duty, cuts in income tax rates for low pay (through rise in allowances) and cuts in corporation tax. 4/10 for trying.

Key steps for growth

1. Return Banks to Normalcy and free them to lend and not pad balance sheets
2. Supertax on £2million Mansions
3. Ban the Use of the word "Austerity" - it stops spending and blocks investment
4. Ensure £20 billion of sacred cow Conservative Spending by bringing troops home, re-thinking trident, cutting civil service jobs in London and the South East and selling off expensive London White elephants like the Houses of Parliament (cost £1.6billion), rethink HS2, Make Gatwick the UK global hub.

Clegg's Leveson Opportunity

Finally an opportunity has afforded itself to Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats to shift the political tides in a more favourable direction. The Leveson Report has overwhelming public support.

The public demands that Tabloid Newspapers are finally cleaned up and prevented from widescale malpractice for profit. David Cameron has shifted from welcoming the Report before publication to opposing regulation of the press. Nick Clegg has broken ranks and along with Ed Milliband is backing the Leveson Report.

Here is the cause celebre required to break with the Tories and make common cause with Labour. Cross Party talks on Leveson should form the basis of Labour-Liberal Democrat cooperation for Economic Growth and Deficit Reduction, Combating UK Child Poverty, Promoting UK EU Membership, Taxation and Youth Unemployment, and a strong Federal United Kingdom.
Already Ed Balls has suggested cooperation with Vince Cable, such conversations could also include constructive dialogue by Lib Dem Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet colleagues with the objective of strengthening the progressive agenda in parliament and within government.
If David Cameron attempts to block or water down Leveson, Clegg and Milliband must sponsor a Lib-Lab Bill in parliament to gain maximum cross party support in favour of a Leveson Bill to provide Legal safeguarding to any independent press abuse watchdog.

This might precipitate the break-up of the coalition but it would be on an issue of principle and an issue where Clegg is in tune with public opinion and Cameron is seen as the puppet of Murdoch and the Daily Mail.

Should this become a vote of confidence in the Cameron government - Clegg should show no fear in making a new "Leveson Coalition" with Labour or fighting an election in 2013 on the slogan - "Pro-Leveson, Pro-Growth".

The Tories and UKIP

The new face of British politics is emerging from the Age of Austerity and the face is that of beaming UKIP leader Nigel Farage.

Conservative Vice Chairman Michael Fabricant is urging an electoral pact with UKIP to enable the Conservative Party to win the next election. At the same time the Conservatives are trying to extend the Austerity psychology to turn the clock back to the 1950's. Put the political jigsaw together - the return of O levels, attempts to restrict access to degrees to a small elite, the rise of the rented sector, the pricing of ordinary working class motorists off the road, the rolling back of human rights, employment legislation and health and safety law before 1974. Watch out for the return of corporal punishment, hanging, steam trains, grammar schools, the golden age of atomic power and national service. We've already an old etonian in downing street so rev up the Bentley it's back to the 50's.
What of the future of the Lib Dem-Conservative Coalition? - already we've had back pedalling and blatant renaging on the coalition agreement from the Tories. With the prospect with a post 2015 Anti-European and crypto-rascist right wing coalition between the Tories and UKIP looming, now is the time for the Lib Dems to accuse their present partners of political infidelity and forge a pro-growth, pro-europe and pro-human rights coalition with Labour and the Greens to deliver the correct mix of policies need to return to sustainable prosperity. Chancellor Osborne warns the Age of Austerity lasting 8 years (why because he wants this to happen)
It is clear that the conservatives are intent on using recession, debt and deficit to pursue a covert agenda aimed at social, political and economic rengineering of Britain which will end in the break up the Union, and the exit of britain from europe. Can the Lib Dems block such actions? Is it time to change the incumbent in downing street from Cameron to Milliband.
It is clear that with the nicely timed "Fostergate" issue breaking on the Rotherham By-election that UKIP will do very well in the protest vote.
What UKIP fail to realise that millions of UK jobs in the food, farming and manufacturing industry have relied upon east european migrant labour doing the low paid unpleasant jobs - such as abatoir work and agricultural labouring to enable industries being based in the UK. Had this work not been done, then food companies and certain manufacturers would have been forced to relocate to low cost centres like Portugal and Poland in the 1990's. Just like the London buses and NHS migrant labour has been essential to keep key infrastructure working. If more effective effort had been put into apprenticeships and vocational training then we might see more UK workers in these roles.

Things could be better, things could be much worse

Tory policies (NHS reform, education reforms, police chiefs) and politicians  (Mitchell, Nadine et al) continue to implode nicely and Lib Dem arguments in favour of taking a harder line against press barons, tax dodgers and Bankers are winning through. Our dogs may bark but beware the sneaky tory caravan rolls on towards 2015. The Conservatives are increasingly shedding their Cameron skins and breaking cover as Thatcher's Children. What is clear is that they will from a policy point of view fighting it out with UKIP for the Right Wing vote leaving the Lib Dems and Labour contesting the Centre Ground and Left of Centre Vote. Had the Lib Dems not entered into the coalition with the Tories this ought to be very good news for the party but we are sadly toxically damaged by being willing accomplices .

As the political game stands at the moment - the only certain thing about 2015 is that the Lib Dems have a high risk of electoral meltdown. So the cards are stacked against us. We keep playing the game, in the hope of events coming to our rescue, but it is increasingly clear that the Conservatives strategy of winning 2015 is based upon the annihilation of the Lib Dems (just like 1924) according to George Osborne's cunning plan, amongst many.

 What to do ? - one option (described as the nuclear option) is to simply formally leave the coalition on a matter of moral issue (and there are plenty of them) and leave the Labour Party to take over government on a supply and confidence basis. We have a fixed term parliament so there is a legal requirement for the government to function until 2015 and we can threaten to conclude an electoral "pro-growth" pact with Labour (and possibly other parties) to deter a conservative vote of confidence in parliament. This would allow the Lib Dems to distance our party from the Conservatives, allow the Conservatives to morph into UKIP (Mk2) unfettered and give some better prospect of survival. If we allow the party to be smashed in the 2015 polls, it will split into 2 tiny groups - a Liberal Orange Book Party to be absorbed by the Conservatives, and a Social Liberal Party to be swallowed by Labour.

We can clearly go on for another year or two making mischief of Tory policies from within the coalition but as Tory policies fail they will surely blame us, or tear themselves apart. Either way it will be messy and Labour can take the moral high ground.
We could play the straight bat, trudge on it the national interest, take the blows from all sides and do our best - but without a credible economic plan and a triple dip possible/likely this seem like the actions of stoic lemmings (look at the Liberal Party during the First World War) .
Wait and See until Spring?  - the procrastinators option of muddling on is tempting, hopefully a good retail Christmas, a drop in fuel and gas prices, further growth in the enterprise economy to offset public sector cuts - some of this will happen but european and international forces will drag growth down in 2013 unless we see some dramatic action from Obama and Europe to kick start things (unlikely).
So after all - we will keep plodding on then in the national interest, keeping the government in power like a loyal wife being cheated on and knowing that a successor is being groomed (UKIP) to take our place as post 2015 coalition partner, and we will fall on our swords in 2015. Still the idea of tipping up the game board does excite.

A Proud Day for the Party

Today's Liberal Democrat Conference Debate on the Economy has shown that the Party remains solidly behind the Coalition Government, the Party Leadership and Nick Clegg's continuing Leadership. Defeat of the Social Liberal Forum's Amendment 1 was overwhelming and it brought solid fighting attacks on the bankruptcy of Ed Ball's Siren calls for Plan B when already Liberal Democrats were successfully fighting for a Green Growth Strategy and Investment Programme in government along with a more practical implementation of Deficit reduction within the credible framework supported by the IMF and Global Investors. Vince Cable's witty, authoritative and masterful speech announcing a Billion Pound British Bank to help Small Businesses and Exporters was a substantial structural improvement.

The Party has come to terms with successes and failings so far in Government and is already beginning the political fightback for 2015.

Brilliant contributions from Steve Webb, Jo Swinson, Vince Cable, Tim Farron show a talented team of conviction politicians determined to put fairness at the heart of government.

Saving the Day

Liberal Democrats can take heart that for once we have been the centre of attention. In the old days when David Steel said his famous lines "Go back to your constituencies ... and prepare for government"  the other parties (and public laughed) well we have been in government for 2+ years and what we say and think matters. Admittedly we got some things (a lot wrong) and we been blamed (wrongly) for the things the Conservatives have done and compelled us to agree with , but that's Coalition Government. When Britain faced a political crisis in May 2010, I didn't see Labour or the Conservatives coming together to save the economy - did you? If Lib Dems had said we're not getting our hands dirty, and refused to talk to the other parties then we would have had a weak and indecisive minority Conservative government without mandate to do anything and the economy would have been in the toilet. Instead we have had strong (not always joined up) government but Lib Dem popularity has taken the hit.

We might be in single figures in the polls, have a leader as popular as Michael Foot but the eyes on the world are on us and we have even captured the very short attention span of the big brother 15 seconds of You Tube fame which is popular culture with Nick Clegg's "I'm Sorry Parody". Defying conventional wisdom, this week's Lib Dem Conference in Brighton will strangely renew Nick Clegg's leadership and put and end to the Right wing drift of the Party. At a fringe meeting today Labour's Policy wonk John Cruddas even praised the positive role the Lib Dems have had as a break on right wing Toryism. All the critisism of Clegg has been taken on the chin and on board. The Political fightback can begin, with Lib Dems united and determined to hold the line against an autumn of radical right "Tea Party" style Conservative attacks on Britain.

Tim Farron Party President is witty in saying that George Osborne has abandoned Plan A, since Michael Gove has marked down his grade to Plan B. It is good to see that the Party's call for a tax on the super rich is now policy and remembering that the party has already taken so many low paid people out of income tax already.

Clegg has been branded a liar (on the basis of the Tuition fee cock-up) by politicians on the Left and Right who have a long list of massive deceptions and blunders to their name, (Iraq, End to Boom and Bust, NHS Safe with us) and it is time the party rallies to his cause.
We must be determined to renew the coalition to it's dual task of reducing the budget deficit whilst stimulating economic growth and Ed Davey's speech on Tory attempts to block Lib Dem Green Growth strikes the right note. Not sure about Jo Swinson's joke about Jeremy Thorpe or Norman Baker's plan for road charges though. Nick Clegg has correctly expressed the public concern on tax evasion by the super rich while the poor are paying more and earning less. Welfare reform has started to highlight potential savings from greedy people but Lib Dems must work to protect the genuine needy in this process. Steve Webb's efforts to fix the Pension timebomb are laudable but it is the economic hear and now we need to fix, we need to win today to fix tommorrow.
Nick Clegg is safe and he will be able to build on this as a bruising but catharthic experience to reconnect with the party.
If we fight hard, then mistakes made in 5 days in May, will be put to one side. What matters now is to get growth , keep our civic rights (employment, human and safety) and relations (especially with Europe) good and deliver on the deficit reduction. If the Lib Dem left is given a proper role in this and not rail-roaded then we might even be able to forge effective inter party policy agreements with the enemy (Conservatives) for the good of the Country - stronger defences (bring back Ark Royal, Sea Harriers, HMS Brittania, Concorde) , putting Afghanistan on a sustainable security footing and boosting Britain's exports with the BRIC group. Perhaps if we can get effective tax gathering for the super-rich we can see cuts in taxes on jobs and wealth creation - eg VAT, NI, Corporation Tax, High Street Rates and Fuel Duty.

Clegg's Dunkirk

Nick Clegg is facing his personal political Dunkirk. His popularity is at Rock Bottom with the public and his party. His political mea culpa has been ridiculed and he is facing calls for his resignation.
How he now reacts will determine his future and the recovery of his party's fortunes. On the one hand he could react defensively and with pride and like Tory Whip Andrew Mitchell over "Plebgate" or Tony Blair over Iraq could continue with half an apology, arrogance and hubris. Or he like Winston Churchill after Dunkirk turn a disaster into a Political Victory.
If I were him, I would ensure that the Youtube Viral Hit "Im Sorry" was played at his entrance into the Party Conference.

 If I were him, I would take it with good humour and take ownership of the humiliation. If necessary why not travel like Lempik Opeg to the Australian Jungle to eat his "I'm a Celebrity - Jungle Humble Pie". It can only improve his popularity and it is how unpopular celebrities redeem themselves with the public, which is what he needs to do. If not (then perhaps Europe beckons?)

Does Clegg hear the Call of the Jungle?

He needs to also recognise that students want a cut in tuition fees and Labour's coming motion (reducing fees to £6000  from £9000) is a chance for him to get the Lib Dems as a party to support this and negotiate a change in government to find the money to fund this without breaking the coalition.  He is No.2 in Government and needs to starting action as Second in Command and not a "No.2".

Clegg can still show Leadership and turn blunder and humiliation into success. It's only over when it's over and the public loves an underdog - especially one they kicked, but the trick is to still smile. Not a job I would want but I'm not Vince Cable.

Things can only get better ...

The Recent falls in Unemployment pressage better times perhaps .
We all remember the D-ream song "Things can only get better" as Tony Blair beamed through the crowds into Downing Street, and of course they got worse.  For Liberal Democrats that prospect of a Progressive coalition with Blair's Labour disappeared in 1997 and reappeared briefly in 2010 when a desperate Gordon Brown clung to office. I myself preferred a Progressive, Pro-Growth coalition rather than the Anti-Growth, Austerity Coalition we ended up, however like many other Lib Dems I was seduced to the dark side by the Holy Grail of an AV referendum.

 Today's Mea Culpa from Nick Clegg is only half an apology and two years too late. He ought to say sorry for not putting opposition to tuition fees at the Top of the negotiating list (ahead of AV) for the Coalition Agreement in May 2010, not for making the pledge. A double mistake which has cost us the Student Vote, 50% of our support and saw the cause of PR put back 20 years.

We are where we are. We are at the bottom of the electoral cycle, whether we can climb out of the hole of our own making is on whether growth returns, and we can put right wrongs against students and detoxify the party image from one of blundering liars and self-serving opportunists (which we are NOT). Liberal Democrats need to point out that in the 5 days that we had in May 2010 to save the country, we succeeded in doing so but made a rushed decision which damaged our party. This mistake, though probably the most serious blunder in our Party's History was nothing compared the giant lies and errors from the Labour Government 1997-2010 ( the Iraq War, selling the Gold reserves for next to nothing, giving the Bankers a blank cheque, wasting billions, rising National Debt, budget deficit etc) and the same from the Tories (remember the 1980's?, Poll Tax, George Osborne's Budget?). By comparison the choices over Tuition Fees and AV pale by comparison but to those they affected were life changing.

Made the Mess, then Ran away

Labour's crocodile tears (especially Ed Balls) need to be exposed. They presided over the Banking Crisis, and threw trillions of pounds of taxpayers money to fix it, and having left the treasury empty ran for cover. Ed Balls could have been Chancellor now, helping to solve the problem but he ran for the Leadership instead.
Labour did leave the Coalition with a moderate recovery which George Osborne has choked off.

AV/Lord Reform Trickster

The Central economic problem is a lack of effective demand in the economy not bottlenecks in the supply side of the economy. One half of the country is too poor to spend and the other half too frightened. We need confidence - confidence that house prices will be stable, confidence that our jobs are safe and confidence that prices will not outstip our ability to keep up with the bills.

Beecroft Style Tory Supply Side Reforms will depress demand

The Radical Tory right have got it all wrong with their attempts to bash public sector workers and remove employment and safety rights for workers across the economy. We need to make it harder to sack or make people redundant. We need to put the trillions of QE money out of Bankers vaults into people's pockets to spend in local shops and businesses. The velocity of money needs speeding up by encouraging people to increase the number of buying transactions in the local economy - eg the Bristol Pound.


The Times today reported 2,000 tax exiles in Monaco costing the UK economy £1billion in lost tax revenue.  There's some money to pay the Student Tuition fees and the price the Tories have to pay now for not honouring their side of the AV and Lords Reform pledges.

The party needs to fight it's corner within government and land some blows against Labour's disgraceful record in creating the mess that we're all in.

We need a positive vision of investment and a plan for growth including perhaps billeting unemployed people with Britain's Businesses - to get them economically active and ready for work.

Growth through Investment and Consumer Spending

Lib Dems 1, Conservatives 0

With the surprise appointment of Jo Swinson to a second Ministerial Role as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Equalities to add to her reshuffle appointment of Parliamentary Under-Secretary of Stateat Business Innovation and Skills we can look forwards to Jo carrying on the good offices of Lynne Featherstone who held the Equality Portfolio from 2010-12.
Jo with a foot in Business and Equality can perhaps ensure that an Conservative Beecroft proposals to reduce employment protections to British workers will not expose vulnerable employees from the threat of sacking driven by discrimination from rogue employers - such as Construction Companies not employing asians (I once worked in such a company and was told not to employ an asian member of staff - I of course protested and reminded my company chairman of the illegality of the remark) or older workers facing age discrimination or women of child bearing age facing sex discrimination.
As Vince Cable rightly pointed out - the economic case - frightened workers don't spend money.

Agenda 2013

Liberal Democrats have to show courage, unity and determination in the remaining years of this Coalition. The prime task is to stimulate economic growth by a mixture of Liberal Democrat and Conservative Policies. The Challenge is to block lunatic dogmatically driven Conservative supply side measures like the Beecroft Report. Constructive Politics between Ed Balls, Ken Clarke and Vince Cable on issue driven economics can perhaps limit the damage that doctrinaire politics from Michael Fallon and George Osborne, who are going to be rightly identified as Neo-Thatcherite Conservatives.

Key Areas for Agenda 2013

Deficit Reduction

• Cut in Government Spending and Jobs offset by lowering taxation which stangles growth - eg National Insurance, Petroleum Tax, Small Business Corporation Tax, Working Tax Credit penalties for Self-Employment
• Re-balancing the Economy means moving government expenditure out of the expensive South East of England and into the Regions who can provide services at a fraction of the cost. Government buildings can be sold for residential and commercial property development.
• Sell off MOD land and keep Britain's Defence Capabilities - eg Aircraft Carriers, Independent Nuclear Deterrent

Economic Policy

• Return control of the economy to the Treasury and give the Treasury total control of the FSA and Bank of England. 
• Ensure that 100% of the NEETs are in a real scheme of training or employment, restructuring tuition fees so that current taxpayers earning over £100,000 who hold degrees which were funded by LEA Grants pay money to assist UK undergraduate students.
• Uphold Health and Safety, Human Rights and Employment Rights Laws
• Heathrow Airport - Build "Boris Island" on the Thames Estuary instead of expanding Heathrow.
• High Speed Rail - recognise that Britain is not France or Japan and that a High Speed Rail system is too expensive and damaging for Britain. Spend money on improving Rail and Road bottlenecks in the current 5 years rather than White Elephant projects in 2020.
• Severn Barrage - and Channel Road Tunnel - major imaginative infrastructure projects to lift construction sector and envision public.

Foreign Policy

• Iran - A positive agenda is required whereby Iran and China and Pakistan are encouraged to take a constructive role in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan to send troops as peacekeepers/observers to promote peace and development. Ensure constructive dialogue between Iran and Israel which opposes the use of force and terrorism on either side.
• Afghanistan - Troops out by 2015 to be replaced by a combined Iranian/Chinese Peacekeeping force with Afghanistan split into Zones of Influence.
• Keeping Britain at the heart of Europe, uphold European Human Rights laws.

Defence and Defence of Democracy

• Reversal of defence cuts and restoration of British Armed forces. 
• Use Boundary Change to end "Safe Seats" in parliament which are as anti-democratic as 19th century rotten boroughs. Engineer constituencies to maximise representative proportionality and marginality.

National Pride

• Symbolic National Projects to capitalise on National Spirit - eg New Royal Yacht Brittania , British Space Programme based in South Atlantic - eg Falklands, Ascension, St Helena, Get Concorde Flying as official Royal and Prime Ministerial Plane to promote Britain, Get Ark Royal reinstated as National Aircraft Carrier flying Harrier Jumpjets.

Turning the Corner

Finally the Party has turned the corner and things are on the up. Nick Clegg has reached his low point in popularity and the economy now starts to show green shoots of genuine recovery. Conservative desparation over the Recent economic mismanagement by George Osborne highlights how much better Lib Dem Business Secretary would do in the job. The Jubilee and Olympics have effected a change in the UK. Firstly by keeping people glued to their TV Sets and out of the high street - it has depressed economic growth for almost 6 months - but the latest July manufacturing figures point to an autumn of growth and the national spirit has seen an outpouring of patriotism and celebration of all things British including tolerance and a celebration of diversity and the achievements of paralympic athletes, which has changed attitudes towards issues of disability.

2012 will be seen as the year the Coalition started to get it's act together. The Lib Dem leadership has been savaged (rightfully) by party critics but it has a real mandate to champion human rights, British Business Interests (especially in Europe) and Enviromentalism in the face of Right wing Conservatives who seem to have taken control in the Conservative side of the Coalition. True Liberal Democrats need to stand up for what is right in Government while forging links with Business and Communities to promote Exports, Growth and Jobs.

Time for hard work , determined principles and unity - which may yet bring a rightful outcome in 2015.