As this blog has advocated life for the Liberal Democrats and the UK as a whole under this coalition with the Conservatives since 2010 has been intensely challenging.
A light on the horizon has started to emerge. Liberal Democrats are getting more experienced in the art of government and in coalition politics since 2010. Opinion Polls have started to restore the party's electoral fortunes and the fight back is emerging. Back at 14% in the polls, the public is starting to recognise the distinct identity of the Junior Partners in the Coalition which the Dominant Partners - the Conservative Party is beginning to become riven by serious party splits and backbench rebellions. The Conservatives have already broken the spirit of the Coalition agreement by intriging against AV, and by pushing thatcherite NHS and Education reform. Now back bench rebellions look like forcing the Conservatives in breaking the letter of the coalition agreement by Eurosceptic pronouncements by Cameron and now a 110 strong Lords Reform rebellion. Lib Dems are threatening to block the Tory gerrymandering boundary review in retaliation.
Vince Cable is doing a brilliant job as Business Secretary his growth agenda looks a better winner than George Osborne's failed Austerity plan which has stalled after a disasterous year for the chancellor.
So long as Lib Dems can keep pressuring and splitting the tories, and advocating policies which are well respected in the country the party will strengthen.
If we can provoke an economic policy split between No.11 and No.10 Downing Street, as George Osborne gets increasingly needled by his poor performance against Ed Balls and his competency deficit against professional economist Vince Cable - a good result.
Labour is currently riding high in the polls, Lib Dems would much rather be in government with them rather than the Tories however it didn't happen in 2010 and now their fortunes are restored it would happen again as Labour doesn't care about Britain but only getting into and staying in power.
Sunday, 8 July 2012
Thursday, 5 July 2012
Orange Book - We've been Tangoed & The Coming Split over Europe
How much longer has the Coalition go to run? - not the 3 calendar years to 2015 that's for sure. In the Liberal Democrats , right wing "orange bookers" like Nick Clegg and the exiled David Laws who are essentially free market thatcherite liberals maskerading as Liberal Democrats are preparing for another round of closer proximity to the Conservative Party in the run up and post 2015.
Stuff of pipe dreams however as events in Europe are now driving events in Britain. Anti-Europeans in the Conservative Party are watching the sad events in the Eurozone with a mixture of glee (at the troubles of the euro) and alarm (at the growing signs of greater european integration to fix things).
What is certain is that whatever happens in Europe in 2013, whether Europe comes together or splits apart, it will have a profound effect on Conservative Eurosceptics (now the mainstream) and Anti-Europeans (the Rest) who will attempt to move the Party to the right and become a UKIP (Mark II) .
Will the Orange Book brigade be able to stomach a UKIP Tory Party ? - (anything is possible with Messrs Clegg and Laws) but for the bulk of the Party surely a bridge too far?
Ten Clear Issues for the Lib Dems to leave the Coalition Now
Remedial Action Now
STEP ONE
The Whole party ought to establish an independant anti-tory profile by crossing the floor of the house and sitting on the opposition benches and voting with their consciences. I would hope decent Lib Dems like Sarah Teather, Vince Cable would sit with them while remaining with the Government at the moment. This might break commons etiqette but it would be a powerful symbol to the country that Lib Dems will fight back for a Fairness and Prosperity.
STEP TWO
We need to renegotiate the Coalition Agreement to ensure fairness and prosperity which means an end to tax breaks for the super rich and reduced or zero tuition fees for Students.
Stuff of pipe dreams however as events in Europe are now driving events in Britain. Anti-Europeans in the Conservative Party are watching the sad events in the Eurozone with a mixture of glee (at the troubles of the euro) and alarm (at the growing signs of greater european integration to fix things).
What is certain is that whatever happens in Europe in 2013, whether Europe comes together or splits apart, it will have a profound effect on Conservative Eurosceptics (now the mainstream) and Anti-Europeans (the Rest) who will attempt to move the Party to the right and become a UKIP (Mark II) .
Will the Orange Book brigade be able to stomach a UKIP Tory Party ? - (anything is possible with Messrs Clegg and Laws) but for the bulk of the Party surely a bridge too far?
Ten Clear Issues for the Lib Dems to leave the Coalition Now
- Yesterday's Terrible decision, despite a 600,000 strong public petition to scrap the Leeds Heart Unit
- The Stomach churning decisions and betrayals we have had to make so far - especially tuition fees
- The Lack of a Plan B Growth Strategy to allow repayment of the Budget Deficit
- Michael Gove (AKA Doctor Strangegove) and his attempt to bring back O levels and the 11+
- Eric (I ate a ****) Pickles - for everything he says and does
- The fact we are 9% in the polls and there will be no party in 2015
- The Tories cannot be trusted over Europe - they are looking to break the Coalition Agreement
- NHS Reforms - a crazy idea and not what we signed on for
- Betrayal over PR - we got conned over AV and the tories made sure we lost by millions of tax dodging tory donor pounds
- The Creeping Orange Book "We've been tangoed" takeover of the party by right wing libertarian types
Remedial Action Now
STEP ONE
The Whole party ought to establish an independant anti-tory profile by crossing the floor of the house and sitting on the opposition benches and voting with their consciences. I would hope decent Lib Dems like Sarah Teather, Vince Cable would sit with them while remaining with the Government at the moment. This might break commons etiqette but it would be a powerful symbol to the country that Lib Dems will fight back for a Fairness and Prosperity.
STEP TWO
We need to renegotiate the Coalition Agreement to ensure fairness and prosperity which means an end to tax breaks for the super rich and reduced or zero tuition fees for Students.
History and Liberal Coalitions - No comfort here
As long as I can remember, Liberals, then Liberals and Social Democrats and then Liberal Democrats have been extolling the virtues of Coalition Politics, about the benefits of compromise and consensus politics putting the National Interest before party interest.
The Alliance was essentially a Coalition which lasted from 1981 to 1988 and ended in the fusion of the two parties and two break away parties - which still exist in the far reaches.
Going back to the Twentieth Century, the first Liberal Coalition Government was the Great Liberal Government of 1906 which led by Campbell Bannerman won a landslide built upon a secret electoral pact with the newly formed Labour Party. The advantage was a temporary gain for the Liberals but in the process they had created a competitor party which soon overtook the Liberals at the Polls. The next attempt at Coalition Politics was the 1910 Cross-Party Conferences with the Conservatives championed by King George V and David Lloyd George. They failed to diffuse the constitutional battles over Home Rule and Lords Reform but laid the foundation for Lloyd George's latter Coalitions with the Conservatives.
By 1910, the Liberal Party had been thwarted by the House of Lords and lost ground at the 1910 General Elections, we finally got the People's Budget Approved and the powers of the Lords reduced, but now only kept in power with Irish Nationalist and Labour support. By 1914 following numerous foreign policy crises which foreshadowed the First World War - a Liberal Government found itself fighting a War which inevitably meant the compulsion of men into war (ie Conscription) to which the party was fundamentally opposed. In the National Interest (and perhaps thinking that a war might postpone difficult problems like Women's Suffrage and Ireland) Asquith took the Liberals into war, despite being faced with a divided Cabinet (Burns, Lansdowne, Trevelyan, Lloyd George and Simon were against - at first). For the sake of the Liberal Party who became tarred with the stain of war, he ought to have resigned and let the Tories fight the War (since Tories like Amery had been pushing the German menace for years) This would have prevented the Labour Party claiming the mantle of anti-war agitation (for which people like Macdonald and others were persecuted ruthlessly). Asquith's position was deliberately undermined by a coalition of Newspaper proprietors, militarists and ambitious politicians like Lloyd George who in a democratic coup d'etat replaced him in 1915.
Lloyd George then use corrupt honours trafficking money raised by Maundy Gregory to fund the Coalition and a "Coupon Electoral Pact" with the Conservatives to stay in power. Lloyd George won the war but the peace he presided over at Versailles was a Carthaginian Peace which lay the foundations of the Second World War and set up a system of reparations which weakened the European Economy. He attempted to entrap the Conservative Party into a permanent Centre Party in opposition to Socialism which caused a Conservative Backlash which ended his premiership. The betrayal of Asquith created a split in the Liberals (only temporarily patched up in 1923) which lasted until his death in 1945, his secret fund of corrupt money was used a way of debilitating the Liberal Party as it prevented attempts to put party funding on a sound footing (the Million Pound campaign was blighted by the prospect of easy money) and he eventually recaptured the Liberal Party in 1926.
Whilst the Lloyd George Coalition won the First World War, brought democratic reforms (womens suffrage), Irish Independence, Social measures it effectively destroyed the Liberal Party as an independent party of government in the process and led to a series of Party Splits.
In 1931 , another National Crisis -(Caused by a profligate and directionless Labour Government) led to a National Government of all of the Parties which then became a vehicle for the Splitting of Labour and the Liberal Parties, the introduction of Protectionism by the backdoor (something which had seen a Conservative Government defeated at the polls in 1923) and the dominance of Conservative Politics until 1940. The Liberals went into the Coalition in the National interest, were tricked in government and then split, the true liberals under Samuel (opposed to Protection) leaving, and the tricked liberals (under Simon) becoming National Liberals becoming inbroiled (like Lloyd George himself) in the Appeasement of Nazi Germany.
Tory and National Liberal (and National Labour) Appeasement had led to War, the smoke filled corridors of power being used to block the voices of dissent by ex-liberals like Winston Churchill.
The true Liberals like Archie Sinclair supported Churchill and helped in the famous Norway Debate to unite with Die Hard Tories and Labour Patriots (Ernie Bevin) to bring down Neville Chamberlain and finally end appeasement. Even arch appeaser Lloyd George settled a score with Chamberlain and helped (though he refused to join the Coalition Government and held out for Petain Style defeatist peace with the Nazis).
Winston Churchill's Wartime Coalition of 1940-45 was the Greatest of the Coalitions and Liberals helped to win the War (Archie Sinclair was Air Minister during the Battle of Britain and terrible bombing of Nazi Germany) and create the Welfare State under the Liberal Beveridge Plan. Yet all the electoral credit finally went to Labour as the public were sick to the stomach of Tory led Coalition politics.
The Final Liberal Coalition was the Lib-Lab Pact of 1977-78 which helped stabilise the UK economy at time of National Crisis. Debt was controlled, Reforms brought in, and Inflation curbed. Yet the Party was punished at the polls and the pact broke up leading to a period of minority Labour government which saw the winter of discontent and then 11 years of Thatcherism.
So Coalition Politics did bring temporary resolution to a National Crisis in 1910,1915,1931,1940 and 1977, but at the cost of long term damage to the Liberal Party and also a corrosive effect on the Nation (World War One ,Corruption, the 1930's Depression & Protection & Appeasement etc)
For the Liberal Party each Coalition brought electoral disaster and Party Splits, despite personal monetary gain for Cabinet Ministers.
Coalition/Partner Form Immediate Benefit Long Term Loss
1906/Labour Secret Pact Landslide Win 1906 Established Labour
1910/Irish Nats Voting Stay in Office 1910-5 Irish Probs, Drift to War
1915/Cons Coalition Win War, some reform Party Split, loss of votes
1931/Con/NatLab Nat Govt Office, Save Econ? Split, Votes, Tariffs, War
1940/Con/Lab War Coal in War, Beveridge Labour Gain
1977/Lab Pact Economy Loss of Votes
2010/Con Coalition Ministers, Save Econ? ????? (see above)
So in voting terms, the 1910-22 coalitions saw a fall in support from 43% to 28% and the 1931 Coalition saw a fall from 23% to 11%, only the 1940-5 coalition saw a rise in Liberal Vote from 6% to 9%, yet a decline in MPs from 20 to 12, with Labour getting the landslide. The 1977 pact saw a decline in the polls from 14% to 6%. So far the 2010 Coalition has seen the dramatic collapse of the Lib Dem Vote from 25% to just 9%
The Alliance was essentially a Coalition which lasted from 1981 to 1988 and ended in the fusion of the two parties and two break away parties - which still exist in the far reaches.
Going back to the Twentieth Century, the first Liberal Coalition Government was the Great Liberal Government of 1906 which led by Campbell Bannerman won a landslide built upon a secret electoral pact with the newly formed Labour Party. The advantage was a temporary gain for the Liberals but in the process they had created a competitor party which soon overtook the Liberals at the Polls. The next attempt at Coalition Politics was the 1910 Cross-Party Conferences with the Conservatives championed by King George V and David Lloyd George. They failed to diffuse the constitutional battles over Home Rule and Lords Reform but laid the foundation for Lloyd George's latter Coalitions with the Conservatives.
By 1910, the Liberal Party had been thwarted by the House of Lords and lost ground at the 1910 General Elections, we finally got the People's Budget Approved and the powers of the Lords reduced, but now only kept in power with Irish Nationalist and Labour support. By 1914 following numerous foreign policy crises which foreshadowed the First World War - a Liberal Government found itself fighting a War which inevitably meant the compulsion of men into war (ie Conscription) to which the party was fundamentally opposed. In the National Interest (and perhaps thinking that a war might postpone difficult problems like Women's Suffrage and Ireland) Asquith took the Liberals into war, despite being faced with a divided Cabinet (Burns, Lansdowne, Trevelyan, Lloyd George and Simon were against - at first). For the sake of the Liberal Party who became tarred with the stain of war, he ought to have resigned and let the Tories fight the War (since Tories like Amery had been pushing the German menace for years) This would have prevented the Labour Party claiming the mantle of anti-war agitation (for which people like Macdonald and others were persecuted ruthlessly). Asquith's position was deliberately undermined by a coalition of Newspaper proprietors, militarists and ambitious politicians like Lloyd George who in a democratic coup d'etat replaced him in 1915.
Lloyd George then use corrupt honours trafficking money raised by Maundy Gregory to fund the Coalition and a "Coupon Electoral Pact" with the Conservatives to stay in power. Lloyd George won the war but the peace he presided over at Versailles was a Carthaginian Peace which lay the foundations of the Second World War and set up a system of reparations which weakened the European Economy. He attempted to entrap the Conservative Party into a permanent Centre Party in opposition to Socialism which caused a Conservative Backlash which ended his premiership. The betrayal of Asquith created a split in the Liberals (only temporarily patched up in 1923) which lasted until his death in 1945, his secret fund of corrupt money was used a way of debilitating the Liberal Party as it prevented attempts to put party funding on a sound footing (the Million Pound campaign was blighted by the prospect of easy money) and he eventually recaptured the Liberal Party in 1926.
Whilst the Lloyd George Coalition won the First World War, brought democratic reforms (womens suffrage), Irish Independence, Social measures it effectively destroyed the Liberal Party as an independent party of government in the process and led to a series of Party Splits.
In 1931 , another National Crisis -(Caused by a profligate and directionless Labour Government) led to a National Government of all of the Parties which then became a vehicle for the Splitting of Labour and the Liberal Parties, the introduction of Protectionism by the backdoor (something which had seen a Conservative Government defeated at the polls in 1923) and the dominance of Conservative Politics until 1940. The Liberals went into the Coalition in the National interest, were tricked in government and then split, the true liberals under Samuel (opposed to Protection) leaving, and the tricked liberals (under Simon) becoming National Liberals becoming inbroiled (like Lloyd George himself) in the Appeasement of Nazi Germany.
Tory and National Liberal (and National Labour) Appeasement had led to War, the smoke filled corridors of power being used to block the voices of dissent by ex-liberals like Winston Churchill.
The true Liberals like Archie Sinclair supported Churchill and helped in the famous Norway Debate to unite with Die Hard Tories and Labour Patriots (Ernie Bevin) to bring down Neville Chamberlain and finally end appeasement. Even arch appeaser Lloyd George settled a score with Chamberlain and helped (though he refused to join the Coalition Government and held out for Petain Style defeatist peace with the Nazis).
Winston Churchill's Wartime Coalition of 1940-45 was the Greatest of the Coalitions and Liberals helped to win the War (Archie Sinclair was Air Minister during the Battle of Britain and terrible bombing of Nazi Germany) and create the Welfare State under the Liberal Beveridge Plan. Yet all the electoral credit finally went to Labour as the public were sick to the stomach of Tory led Coalition politics.
The Final Liberal Coalition was the Lib-Lab Pact of 1977-78 which helped stabilise the UK economy at time of National Crisis. Debt was controlled, Reforms brought in, and Inflation curbed. Yet the Party was punished at the polls and the pact broke up leading to a period of minority Labour government which saw the winter of discontent and then 11 years of Thatcherism.
So Coalition Politics did bring temporary resolution to a National Crisis in 1910,1915,1931,1940 and 1977, but at the cost of long term damage to the Liberal Party and also a corrosive effect on the Nation (World War One ,Corruption, the 1930's Depression & Protection & Appeasement etc)
For the Liberal Party each Coalition brought electoral disaster and Party Splits, despite personal monetary gain for Cabinet Ministers.
Coalition/Partner Form Immediate Benefit Long Term Loss
1906/Labour Secret Pact Landslide Win 1906 Established Labour
1910/Irish Nats Voting Stay in Office 1910-5 Irish Probs, Drift to War
1915/Cons Coalition Win War, some reform Party Split, loss of votes
1931/Con/NatLab Nat Govt Office, Save Econ? Split, Votes, Tariffs, War
1940/Con/Lab War Coal in War, Beveridge Labour Gain
1977/Lab Pact Economy Loss of Votes
2010/Con Coalition Ministers, Save Econ? ????? (see above)
So in voting terms, the 1910-22 coalitions saw a fall in support from 43% to 28% and the 1931 Coalition saw a fall from 23% to 11%, only the 1940-5 coalition saw a rise in Liberal Vote from 6% to 9%, yet a decline in MPs from 20 to 12, with Labour getting the landslide. The 1977 pact saw a decline in the polls from 14% to 6%. So far the 2010 Coalition has seen the dramatic collapse of the Lib Dem Vote from 25% to just 9%
Thursday, 28 June 2012
Lib Dem 2015 Roll Call of Doom
As has been said before, 2 years in and the writing is on the wall.
2015 will see a Britain in the depth of a Coalition enhanced Economic Depression with the Lib Dems blamed by everyone. Public Opinion is now fixed and the following decent Liberal Democrats will be leaving Parliament in the 2015 election (according to Electoral Calculus .co.uk). This will see the Lib Dems reduced from 57 MPs to 17. The biggest Liberal reverse since 1924.
Unless these Liberal Democrat MP's vote this Tory Government (Lib Dem policies only count for 40% of the Coalition Programme, not the 75% claimed) down - the General Public will never forgive the party and we will see the Party split into a tiny rump of "Wee Free MP's" , and two groups of Pro-Tory and Pro-Labour MPs in the aftermath of the political bloodbath.
- Simon Hughes
- Alan Beith
- John Hemming
- David Ward
- Sarah Teather
- Stephen Williams
- Gordon Birtwhistle
- Julian Huppert
- Tom Brake
- Mark Hunter
- Martin Horwood
- Duncan Hames
- Dan Rogerson
- Annette Brooke
- Stephen Lloyd
- Chris Hunhe
- Lynne Featherstone
- Greg Mullholland
- John Leech
- Simon Wright
- Ian Swales
- Lorely Burt
- David Heath
- Stephen Gilbert
- Andrew George
- Paul Burstow
- Jeremy Brown
- Adrian Sanders
- Tessa Munt
- Roger Williams
- Jenny Wilmott
- Robert Smith
- Alan Reid
- Michael Moore
- John Thurso
- Jo Swinson
- Michael Crockart
- Malcolm Bruce
- Danny Alexander
Unless these Liberal Democrat MP's vote this Tory Government (Lib Dem policies only count for 40% of the Coalition Programme, not the 75% claimed) down - the General Public will never forgive the party and we will see the Party split into a tiny rump of "Wee Free MP's" , and two groups of Pro-Tory and Pro-Labour MPs in the aftermath of the political bloodbath.
The Boundary Commission - The Greatest Tory Gerrymandering since the Rotten Boroughs of 1831
I can't believe that democrats in the country at large and in the commons are prepared to let the politically rigged constituency boundaries smash democratic freedom in this country. The electoral analysis website electoralcalculus.co.uk shows that abolition of 50 seats and loss of 50 MP's would leave the Conservative Party with 297 MP's just 3 MP's short of a majority and in a strengthened position in the commons.
Just look at the 17 Liberal Democrat MP's who adversely affected by boundary changes.
Full analysis here
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2013.html
CAMERON'S LIB DEM HIT LIST
The Conservatives are ensuring that the 600 constituencies will be short of 50 constituencies in all parts of Britain (Wales loses 10 seats, Scotland 7, North of England 13, Midlands 5) whilst only 1 consitutency lost in the Tory Heartlands of the South and South East.
This will leave the Conservatives free if the 2010 result were repeated to patch up a deal with the Ulster Unionists and run the country, on 36% of the vote.
Imagine if the SNP get their way and Scotland leaves the Union. People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland would face a Conservative dominated South of England overpowering the rest of the country.
Those MPs who are being targetted by this anti-democratic government ought to use this chance to vote the government down and unthrone Cameron during the Olympics to give him a taste of unemployment.
Just look at the 17 Liberal Democrat MP's who adversely affected by boundary changes.
Full analysis here
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2013.html
CAMERON'S LIB DEM HIT LIST
- Jenny Wilmott
- Dan Rogerson
- Malcolm Bruce
- Charles Kennedy
- Tim Farron
- David Ward
- Gordon Birtwhistle
- Tom Brake
- Annette Brooke
- Jo Swinson
- Greg Mullholland
- Norman Baker
- John Leech
- Mike Hancock
- Ian Swales
- Paul Burstow
- Tessa Munt
- Liam Byrne
- Tessa Jowell
- Gordon Brown
- Hillary Benn
- Andy Burnham
- John Cryer
- Michael Meacher
- David Blunkett
- Chuka Umunna
- Tom Watson
- Bill Cash
- Ken Clarke
- Nadine Dorries
- Zac Goldsmith
- Priti Patel
- Caroline Lucas
The Conservatives are ensuring that the 600 constituencies will be short of 50 constituencies in all parts of Britain (Wales loses 10 seats, Scotland 7, North of England 13, Midlands 5) whilst only 1 consitutency lost in the Tory Heartlands of the South and South East.
This will leave the Conservatives free if the 2010 result were repeated to patch up a deal with the Ulster Unionists and run the country, on 36% of the vote.
Imagine if the SNP get their way and Scotland leaves the Union. People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland would face a Conservative dominated South of England overpowering the rest of the country.
Those MPs who are being targetted by this anti-democratic government ought to use this chance to vote the government down and unthrone Cameron during the Olympics to give him a taste of unemployment.
Tuesday, 19 June 2012
Time for a rapid exit
The Coalition is now approaching the half way point and nearly all Liberal Democrats are feeling trapped in a loveless marriage with the devil. As we watch Sleeping with the Enemy, and remind ourselves of Maggie Thatcher's horrible maxim - TINA (There is no alternative) we can look at the real options for the party. At the moment for Lib Dems we are at the half way point of crossing the Red Sea led by our leader Moses Clegg, too scary to turn back.
OPTION 1 - Make the Coalition work - (Consumate the marriage ugh!) agree with everything the Tories want : RESULT: Tories win next , we lose (unless we come to an electoral arrangement which will split and destroy the party and see the Lib Dems assimilated into the Tory BORG -probably Nick Clegg's masterplan)
OPTION 2 - Separate Beds - (Sham Marriage & Domestic Violence) - This what we are currently headed for. Lib Dems stay in government but backslide, carp, grumble and undermine. Pisses of the Tories and causes them internal quabbles - This is a Vince Cable/Tim Farron approach and has been carried out by Clegg when Lib Dems stage absenteeism walkouts. It has some benefits but ultimately the Public will have the same verdict at the 2015 polls - since a true economic recovery is now falstalled and the Lib Dems will get the blame from a vengeful public and hostile Tories and Labour. RESULT
Labour Victory : Lib Dem annihilation
OPTION 3: - Trial Separation: - We move out of the Coalition House - i.e Cabinet onto the backbenches of opposition and start to establish an independent identity - whilst still honouring our part of the coalition agreement and not voting down the government in a confidence motion, but voting against them on areas we dissagree. This would allow the party to get short money and rebalance itself as a opposition party to austerity, however it might destabilise the markets and antagonise everyone but our supporters and voters. It would allow us to hold power in the commons on an issue by issue vote but in likelihood would lead to either a renegotiation of the Coalition agreement on a more favourable terms or an election in 2013. RESULT : Hung Parliament/ Minority Labour Government, loss of 50-70% of Lib Dem MPS
OPTION 4: Divorce -and secret moving in with Labour - ie a progressive coup d'etat. Secret negotiations with Labour which would see the party crossing the floor and putting Ed Milliband at the head of a minority Labour- Lib Dem Growth/Fairness Coalition. This would need to be backed up by an electoral pact so if the Conservatives voted down the government it would face a uphill fight in the country. This would involve a dramatic shock for David Cameron perhaps during the Olympic Games where he would be ousted from No 10 in dramatic fashion. RESULT :Likelihood of an election in 2013/4 with a LIB-LAB landslide and possible increase in Lib Dem MPs to 80-100. This would create and outcry in Tory ranks not seen since the 1910 Lords Crisis and might see an end of Cameron's Leadership and perhaps Clegg's too. In likelihood, this would be seen a Lib Dem treachery at the extreme (that's how the Murdoch Press would see it) and secret negotiations with Labour would quickly split the coalition and the party with Labour dangling the bait to great effect. However it has happened before : Think of Thatcher's Fall in 1990, Ken Livingstone taking over the GLC in 1981 and the Fall of Asquith in 1915. Would be brilliant if it worked and a last throw of the cards for the Lib Dems.
Wednesday, 6 June 2012
The Uses of Monarchy
In Ancient Rome it was bread and circuses, Karl Marx thought that Religion served the purpose of distraction, in 21st Century Britain the Monarchy still has it's uses. For David Cameron's Conservatives the distraction season has arrived just in the nick of time. The Royal Diamond Jubilee is hoped to create a feel good factor which failed to appear with economic recovery. Troubled Tory Politicians like Jeremy Hunt, Baroness Warsi et al have special reasons to be celebrating 3 months of political amnesia. Cameron can now hope that a cabinet reshuffle might be delayed until the Autumn. However the political car crash of a coalition split is quietly rumbling in the distance. Growth is the key issue. If the feelgood factor can raise the British spirits and stimulate growth and a european crisis can be managed into the distance then just possibly the probable coalition crash might be averted. Much more likely is a crisis of conscience on the part of coalition Liberal Democrats about the fairness and growth agenda already on the cards since Vince Cable's secret talks with Labour
A summer Euro Crisis could provide cover for further justification for continuing the coalition, however Tory eurosceptics will cheer and foam at the mouth during such an event and true Lib Dems will mutter and ring their hands at the inaction. Without a real Growth and Fairness agenda it is very unlikely that Lib Dems like Tim Farron, Vince Cable, Matthew Oakeshot and Simon Hughes could continue to support the coalition in it's present form.
The question of disengagement is a tricky one, a big split would end the coalition and split the Lib Dems. Better perhaps that an honourable figure like Vince Cable leave for the backbenches to act like a voice in the wilderness to guide the coalition into the light
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