Lib Dem 2015 Roll Call of Doom

As has been said before, 2 years in and the writing is on the wall.

2015 will see a Britain in the depth of a Coalition enhanced Economic Depression with the Lib Dems blamed by everyone. Public Opinion is now fixed and the following decent Liberal Democrats will be leaving Parliament in the 2015 election (according to Electoral Calculus .co.uk). This will see the Lib Dems reduced from 57 MPs to 17. The biggest Liberal reverse since 1924.

1. Simon Hughes
2. Alan Beith
3. John Hemming
4. David Ward
5. Sarah Teather
6. Stephen Williams
7. Gordon Birtwhistle
8. Julian Huppert
9. Tom Brake
10. Mark Hunter
11. Martin Horwood
12. Duncan Hames
13. Dan Rogerson
14. Annette Brooke
15. Stephen Lloyd
16. Chris Hunhe
17. Lynne Featherstone
18. Greg Mullholland
19. John Leech
20. Simon Wright
21. Ian Swales
22. Lorely Burt
23. David Heath
24. Stephen Gilbert
25. Andrew George
26. Paul Burstow
27. Jeremy Brown
28. Adrian Sanders
29. Tessa Munt
30. Roger Williams
31. Jenny Wilmott
32. Robert Smith
33. Alan Reid
34. Michael Moore
35. John Thurso
36. Jo Swinson
37. Michael Crockart
38. Malcolm Bruce
39. Danny Alexander 

Although Nick Clegg is not on this list, he surely will be facing his own "Portillo Moment" on election night 2015, which people will tune in for as they did in 1997 for Michael Portillo.

Unless these Liberal Democrat MP's vote this Tory Government (Lib Dem policies only count for 40% of the Coalition Programme, not the 75% claimed) down - the General Public will never forgive the party and we will see the Party split into a tiny rump of "Wee Free MP's" , and two groups of Pro-Tory and Pro-Labour MPs in the aftermath of the political bloodbath.

The Boundary Commission - The Greatest Tory Gerrymandering since the Rotten Boroughs of 1831

I can't believe that democrats in the country at large and in the commons are prepared to let the politically rigged constituency boundaries smash democratic freedom in this country. The electoral analysis website electoralcalculus.co.uk shows that abolition of 50 seats and loss of 50 MP's would leave the Conservative Party with 297 MP's just 3 MP's short of a majority and in a strengthened position in the commons.
Just look at the 17 Liberal Democrat MP's who adversely affected by boundary changes.

Full analysis here

 http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2013.html

CAMERON'S LIB DEM HIT LIST

• Jenny Wilmott
• Dan Rogerson
• Malcolm Bruce
• Charles Kennedy
• Tim Farron
• David Ward
• Gordon Birtwhistle
• Tom Brake
• Annette Brooke
• Jo Swinson
• Greg Mullholland
• Norman Baker
• John Leech
• Mike Hancock
• Ian Swales
• Paul Burstow
• Tessa Munt

CAMERON'S LABOUR HIT LIST (you couldn't make this up)

• Liam Byrne
• Tessa Jowell
• Gordon Brown
• Hillary Benn
• Andy Burnham
• John Cryer
• Michael Meacher
• David Blunkett
• Chuka Umunna
• Tom Watson

 CAMERON'S TORY HIT LIST (anyone spotted a pattern here)

• Bill Cash
• Ken Clarke
• Nadine Dorries
• Zac Goldsmith
• Priti Patel

CAMERON'S GREEN HIT LIST (what a surprise)

• Caroline Lucas

THIS IS POLITICAL GERRYMANDERING!

The Conservatives are ensuring that the 600 constituencies will be short of 50 constituencies in all parts of Britain (Wales loses 10 seats, Scotland 7, North of England 13, Midlands 5) whilst only 1 consitutency lost in the Tory Heartlands of the South and South East.

This will leave the Conservatives free if the 2010 result were repeated to patch up a deal with the Ulster Unionists and run the country, on 36% of the vote.

Imagine if the SNP get their way and Scotland leaves the Union. People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland would face a Conservative dominated South of England overpowering the rest of the country.

Those MPs who are being targetted by this anti-democratic government ought to use this chance to vote the  government down and unthrone Cameron during the Olympics to give him a taste of unemployment. 

Time for a rapid exit

The Coalition is now approaching the half way point and nearly all Liberal Democrats are feeling trapped in a loveless marriage with the devil. As we watch Sleeping with the Enemy, and remind ourselves of Maggie Thatcher's horrible maxim - TINA (There is no alternative) we can look at the real options for the party. At the moment for Lib Dems we are at the half way point of crossing the Red Sea led by our leader Moses Clegg, too scary to turn back.

OPTION 1 - Make the Coalition work - (Consumate the marriage ugh!) agree with everything the Tories want : RESULT:  Tories win next , we lose (unless we come to an electoral arrangement which will split and destroy the party and see the Lib Dems assimilated into the Tory BORG -probably Nick Clegg's masterplan)

OPTION 2 - Separate Beds - (Sham Marriage & Domestic Violence) - This what we are currently headed for. Lib Dems stay in government but backslide, carp, grumble and undermine. Pisses of the Tories and causes them internal quabbles - This is a Vince Cable/Tim Farron approach and has been carried out by Clegg when Lib Dems stage absenteeism walkouts. It  has some benefits but ultimately the Public will have the same verdict at the 2015 polls - since a true economic recovery is now falstalled and the Lib Dems will get the blame from a vengeful public and hostile Tories and Labour. RESULT
Labour Victory : Lib Dem annihilation

OPTION 3: - Trial Separation:  - We move out of the Coalition House - i.e Cabinet onto the backbenches of opposition and start to establish an independent identity - whilst still honouring our part of the coalition agreement and not voting down the government in a confidence motion, but voting against them on areas we dissagree. This would allow the party to get short money and rebalance itself as a opposition party to austerity, however it might destabilise the markets and antagonise everyone but our supporters and voters. It would allow us to hold power in the commons on an issue by issue vote but in likelihood would lead to either a renegotiation of the Coalition agreement on a more favourable terms or an election in 2013. RESULT : Hung Parliament/ Minority Labour Government, loss of 50-70% of Lib Dem MPS

OPTION 4:  Divorce -and secret moving in with Labour  - ie a progressive coup d'etat. Secret negotiations with Labour which would see the party crossing the floor and putting Ed Milliband at the head of a minority Labour- Lib Dem Growth/Fairness Coalition. This would need to be backed up by an electoral pact so if the Conservatives voted down the government it would face a uphill fight in the country.  This would involve a dramatic shock for David Cameron perhaps during the Olympic Games where he would be ousted from No 10 in dramatic fashion. RESULT :Likelihood of an election in 2013/4 with a LIB-LAB landslide and possible increase in Lib Dem MPs to 80-100. This would create and outcry in Tory ranks not seen since the 1910 Lords Crisis and might see an end of Cameron's Leadership and perhaps Clegg's too. In likelihood, this would be seen a Lib Dem treachery at the extreme (that's how the Murdoch Press would see it) and secret negotiations with Labour would quickly split the coalition and the party with Labour dangling the bait to great effect. However it has happened before : Think of Thatcher's Fall in 1990, Ken Livingstone taking over the GLC in 1981 and the Fall of Asquith in 1915. Would be brilliant if it worked and a last throw of the cards for the Lib Dems.

The Uses of Monarchy

In Ancient Rome it was bread and circuses, Karl Marx thought that Religion served the purpose of distraction, in 21st Century Britain the Monarchy still has it's uses. For David Cameron's Conservatives the distraction season has arrived just in the nick of time. The Royal Diamond Jubilee is hoped to create a feel good factor which failed to appear with economic recovery. Troubled Tory Politicians like Jeremy Hunt, Baroness Warsi et al have special reasons to be celebrating 3 months of political amnesia. Cameron can now hope that a cabinet reshuffle might be delayed until the Autumn. However the political car crash of a coalition split is quietly rumbling in the distance. Growth is the key issue. If the feelgood factor can raise the British spirits and stimulate growth and a european crisis can be managed into the distance then just possibly the probable coalition crash might be averted. Much more likely is a crisis of conscience on the part of coalition Liberal Democrats about the fairness and growth agenda already on the cards since Vince Cable's secret talks with Labour
A summer Euro Crisis could provide cover for further justification for continuing the coalition, however Tory eurosceptics will cheer and foam at the mouth during such an event and true Lib Dems will mutter and ring their hands at the inaction. Without a real Growth and Fairness agenda it is very unlikely that Lib Dems like Tim Farron, Vince Cable, Matthew Oakeshot and Simon Hughes could continue to support the coalition in it's present form.
The question of disengagement is a tricky one, a big split would end the coalition and split the Lib Dems. Better perhaps that an honourable figure like Vince Cable leave for the backbenches to act like a voice in the wilderness to guide the coalition into the light

Greece: The True cost of doing nothing

As I was watching a discussion on economics last night on BBC2 Newsnight between leading US Nobel Prize winning Economist and two British Right wing advocates of Conservative George Osborne's Austerity Plan it became apparent that the Conservative Chancellor is using the Deficit as a smoke screen for an agenda which is determined at home to use Austerity to justify a reduction of state spending to 30% of GDP and internationally delights in the exit of Greece from the Euro as a smashing of the federalist dream of a European Super State.

Whilst the US Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman was fixed on ideas which might achieve a lowering of debt through economics, the British speakers Paul Mason and Alexandra Stratton repeated a classical economics mantra of Austerity leading to debt reduction as it John Maynard Keynes had never lived. I was also struck by the fact that the key determinant driving events was dithering by policy makers and fear spooking investors, markets and business.
Germany took a central role since it's determination never to repeat the hyperinflation of the 1920's gives it the determination to hold the line against those advocating a more flexible growth orientated approach. Yet what policy makers in Germany need to remember is that while policymakers in Britain and France in the 1920's stood by while their neighbours in Germany suffered in the 1923 Hyperinflation, there is a direct link between those socio-economic events then and the fear in German middle classes and industrialists that led to the rise of the Nazis and underpinned their crimes in the 1930's and 1940's. If we in Britain, Germany and France stand idly by now while Greece goes up in flames, we will see a 5-10% drop now  in our own GDP say the doomsayers  and a the rise of political extremism and instability in the Balkans dragged down by a Far Right or Far Left Greece. Old evils are rising, relations with Turkey are always difficult - how could Turkey enter Europe when Greece was so badly treated?. Surely a Far Right or Far Left Greek government would play the old card of hostility/fear of Turkey as a electoral card?
When the roof of a temple is about to cave in, then you quickly shore up the roof and protect those standing underneath from harm, not like Samson in the temple try and pull the whole edifice down around you. George Osborne is like Samson in the temple.
What would Conservative Prime Minister and once great Liberal Statesman Winston Churchill do?
He once said "When you your'e going through hell keep going". We on the other hand have stopped and are tearing out hair and beating our breasts. Churchill also said "A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject."
Churchill said in 1941 : "Until now we used to say that Greeks fight like heroes. Now we shall say heroes fight like Greeks.”

I believe that if Winston Churchill had been on the backbenches now he would have been advocating collective intervention of the great powers to help Greece to stabilise it's economy so it could stay in the euro and achieve a long term plan of reconstruction and deficit stabilisation matched with economic growth. If he had been in No.11 Downing Street he would have put together a plan for support and if in No.10 Downing Streeet he would have got on a plane and flown to Athens to pledge Britain's unilateral support for Greece while Europe struggled to find a solution. Instead David Cameron sits on the side lines and counts himself lucky he is on the outside of this, yet as the forecasters show , we may be an island but the financial tsunami from a Greek exit will affect us greatly.
An alternative plan - the Greek crisis has been rumbling on since 2010, and it has led to contagion in Portugal, Spain, and Italy. Yet the initial size of Greek debt £447 billion is miniscule compared to the financial resources of the Euro Area, yet failure to stabilise Greece has led to a wider bill of Spanish, Italian and other Euro country bailouts and of the wider European and Global recession costs of doing nothing.
It is easy to carp about European failure to solve the Greek Crisis and to even blame the Greeks themselves, yet Britain has stood on the sidelines and done what exactly to help? - Britain gave just £1bn to the last bailout, yet British exposure to Greek sovereign debt might be as high as £12bn 

The Lesson of all of this is the economic mismanagement of the 1920's leading the economic crises of the 1930's which led to the victory of Keynes over the classical do nothing austerity voodoo economists of the 1930's.

The Cabinet of Public School Boys

I went to 2 State Comprehensives in late 1970's and early 1980's , one in Birmingham, the other in Hertfordshire and I got a good education, like many of my classmates. Granted both were good comprehensives which at one of which had previously been a Grammar School. Because my grades were good I got to go the the Top end Comprehensive near to my home, whilst my brother had the misfortune to go the ex-Secondary Modern School further away which wasn't as good. I have lived in Buckinghamshire since with it's eleven plus test and seem the panic in parents to get their child into a grammar school and the life impact of the Secondary Modern. I am not ashamed to say that I believe in Comprehensive Education and that wealth had no right to purchase the best education, which should be a right of all. When the time came for my own children, I decided to move to Yorkshire rather than to subscribe to a Grammar School system which operates in Buckinghamshire.
In the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition we have an Education Secretary Michael Gove who left a Comprehensive School to get into a Public School on a Scholarship and is fast tracking the Academy System across the country. I am not idealogically opposed to Academies as such but would oppose a system which recreates Grammar Schools and Secondary Modern Schools again. I am not opposed to Grammar Schools in principle having attended an ex-Grammar School. But I am opposed to Secondary Modern Schools and the pressure to decide life outcomes at age 11.
What of the Government - of the 22 Cabinet Ministers 55% are Public School boys (and Girls), led by the first Etonian Prime Minster David Cameron, since Alec Douglas Home (aka Lord Home) in 1963.

Public Schoolboys (10)
David Cameron           (PM)              Eton
Nick Clegg*               (DPM)            Westminster
George Osborne         (Chancellor)    St Pauls
Andrew Lansley          (Health)          Brentwood
Michael Gove             (Education)     Robert Gordon's
Andrew Mitchell          (Int Dev)        Rugby
Owen Patterson           (N Ireland)     Abberley Hall
Michael Moore*          (Scotland)      Strathallan Sch
Jeremy Hunt                (Culture)         Charterhouse
Lord Strathclyde         (Lancaster)     Wellington

Public School Girls (2)
Caroline Spelman       (Environment)  Essex/Herts HS
Cheryl Gillan              (Wales)           Cheltenham Ladies Coll

Grammar School Boys (6)

William Hague           (Foreign)        Wath upon Dearn GS
Ken Clarke               (Justice)          Nottingham HS (Grammar)

Philip Hammond       (Defence)        Shenfield School
Vince Cable*              (Business)       Nunfield GS
Ed Davey*                (EnergyCC)    Nottingham HS (Grammar)
Eric Pickles              (Local Gvt)     Greenhead GS

Grammar School Girl

Theresa May           (Home)             Holton Park Grammar


Secondary Modern Boy

Iain Duncan Smith  (Work Pens)      St Peters RC Secondary

Comprehensive State School

Justine Greening     (Transport)         Oakwood Comprehensive
Danny Alexander*   (Treasury)         Lochaber High School
Baroness Warsi      (No Portfolio)    Birkdale High School

It's interesting to note that only the Junior Cabinet Ministers such as Justine Greening, Danny Alexander and Baroness Warsi are from Comprehensives , and moreover Baroness Warsi's School Birkdale High School is reported as due for closure, which is something I can see happening to Cameron's school - Eton any day soon - (more's the pity.)

So not only is this Coalition , a cabinet of millionaries with people like George Osborne having a reported fortune of £4 million but it is a Cabinet of Public School Boys.(10 our of 22)

Will Greening, Alexander and Warsi speak up for benefits of Comprehensive Education - I doubt it.

The Majority of the Conservative Party in the Commons is privately educated and has 166 Public School members (54%), as against 36 Labour (14%) and 22 Liberal Democrat (39%)

Comprehensive Education is not a panacea for schools, good resourcing (average state funding per pupil is still 60% that of Public School) good teaching, a learning environment (free of stress, bullying and racism) and parental support are key elements for success.

5 Things to improve matters would be:

1. Make it easier to sack Head Teachers (They are virtually unsackable)
2. Abolish OFSTED - it costs a £200m terrorises teachers, and doesn't improve standards only creates a culture of failure in schools which need support.Much better a covert system which quietly routes out the bad teachers (and yes there are some) and monitors improvements without labelling schools.
3. End Tax breaks for Public Schools.
4. Abolish school SATS tests and let children enjoy their education - I enjoyed a test free (sadly not homework free) schooling until aged 14.
5. Focus on re-establishing a good learning environment (monitoring and lowering stress in children) by a zero tolerance for bullying & racism.

Bonkers Beecroft say Lib Dems

The battle within the Liberal Democrat-Conservative Coalition continues with a new fault line emerging over the Ultra Thatcherite Adrian Beecroft's attempts to scrap Employment Rights for workers. Thankfully wise Liberal Democrat heads like Vince Cable and Lord Oakeshot shoot down the continuing Conservative right wing agenda to use the cover of the Recession to scrap anything they are ideologically opposed to.
Last year David Cameron was insanely calling for people to pay off their credit cards and forget about spending money until he was corrected by economists about the disasterous effect on domestic retail spending on the highstreet, now Beecroft wants to terrify workers further about job security by allowing shyster employers to fire at will.

Since 2008 - there have been people with savings who have had no return from their investments due to low interest rates who have had to economise, people in work with mortgages (not having pay cuts) are much better off from low interest rates but are too terrified of losing their jobs to spend money, and people who have cut back because of pay cuts, welfare cuts and having lost their jobs. All 3 groups have cut spending and this is why we are still in recession. The Banks are not lending money to small businesses and the combination of these factors are the real reason for continuing recession.

Beecroft's plan to turn back the clock to the 1930's might sit well with the Tory right and some shyster SME employers who hate employment rights (and who wouldn't give maternity rights, holiday pay etc if they could get away with it) but the real effort needs to be with the Tory donors hedge funds etc to get them to pay more tax, so we can have tax cuts, deficit reduction along with confidence building measures in industry to make workers feel safer and start spending again. The coalition needs to make savers, workers, homeowners and those on low incomes feel more secure to lift the economy out the rut.  The only Thatcherite piece of legislation worth restoring is the full reinstatement of the 1980's Enterprise Allowance Scheme (instead of the current Ersatz copy) which would allow newly redundant workers to set up after 1 month JSA (dole) instead of making them wait 6 months.