Keeping our powder dry

Now I'm not a fan of this Tory led Coalition which has locked good natured kindly Lib Dems in a faustian pact with the original and unreformed nasty party. I have called on the party to head for the exit now, as the tories have ratted on their coalition pledges and are foisting more stealth tory rubbish on the country. Yet as the summer arrives and the games commence, it can be seen that the Tories have finally started to pay a political price for their coalition perfidy and schoolboy economics. Opinion Polls are finally showing a gradual rise for the party and the Tories are once again a seriously split party with Cameron facing a party with disafected donors and dwindling activists. Muscular Liberalism - once a smokescreen generated by Lib Dem Orange Bookers has taken a life of it's own and landed some damaging blows to Tory Unity.
The Nuclear Option of breaking with the Tories is now seriously being entertained and power within the coalition is returning to the Junior Partners who hold the balance of power. Now is the time for a determined push for a positive programme on the main issue - the economy which will strengthen the party in comparison to the discredited Plan A of George Osborne and the populist yet untrusted siren calls for Plan B from Labour's Ed Balls.

A Tory Triple Dip Recession requires an old fashioned Keynesian fiscal stimulus combined with cross European talks for similar action. Higher Taxes for Bankers, Billionaires and Tax Dodgers combined with Tax Cuts for Small Business, Student Loans Write Off  and Lowering Petrol Tax to European Levels will improve economic wellbeing.

As the Party Conference Season Starts there will be a revolt by Lib Dem Activists wanting out of the Coalition now , or policy changes , and on the Conservative side a more serious revolt against the Coalition.

Voters too looking at the economy will start to remember Labour's Past Record on the Debt Bomb and find the Milliband-Balls**t  too unbelieveable.

The People will want a Plan C  led by a Credible Treasury Team of Cable, Webb, Alexander, Lamb, Laws etc which will offer Growth and Fairness whilst paying down the deficit, which will require a much more aggressive routing out of waste - including in NHS and Welfare waste (without descending into a Tory Stealth agenda) - I would start by relocating Government HQ's and all Government funding organisation HQ's out of London and into the Rest of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Meet the 2014 Conservative Party Leadership Contenders

Everyone remembers John Major's B**Stards who forced him to stage a leadership contest in the 1990's. Once again the Conservative Party is starting to tear itself apart. First the Lords Reform, then ousted Liam Fox throws his hat in the European Ring. Can the erstwhile and disliked David Cameron be prized apart from his coalition partners - the Liberal Democrats?

Cameron can already feel the hot breath of political contenders the back of his neck - so here are the runners and riders for the 2014 contest.

Boris - A Dead Cert

Davis - Outside Chance

Fox - No Chance

Hague - Popular with party tranced at the polls

Talking of comebacks - Did anyone see a Bliarforce one back in town - you couldn't make it up.

September Cabinet Reshuffle - Cable to replace Osborne who goes to Foreign Office?

As the summer recess starts David Cameron has started making plans for his Autumn pre-party conference reshuffle.
His major problem is to dispose of a number of highly unpopular ministers whilst keeping the political right of his party who have tasted the power of backbench rebellion in check. Word is he will be bringing back into government both disgraced Liam Fox and David Laws whilst moving unpopular George Osborne and Theresa May. Baroness Warsi and Jeremy Hunt will both leave the Cabinet table.

Job                     Incumbent      Telegraph Reader Vote to Go 
                                                                              Replaced By
Chancellor         George Osborne       25%              Vince Cable
Home Sec         Theresa May            20%               William Hague
Foreign Sec       William Hague          >1%               George Osborne
Defence Sec      Phillip Hammond      2%                  STAYS
Business Sec     Vince Cable             14%                 Danny Alexander
Work & Pens    IDS                          1%                 STAYS
Justice               Ken Clarke              NA                 Theresa May
Climate Change Ed Davey                 >1%               Caroline Spelman
Health Sec        Andrew Lansley        3%                 STAYS
Education          Michael Gove           5%                 STAYS
Local Gov         Eric Pickles              2%                 STAYS
Transport          Justine Greening        1%                 Damian Greene
Environment     Caroline Spelman       1%                David Willetts 
International D  Andrew Mitchell        >1%              STAYS
Northern Ire     Owen Paterson         >1 %              STAYS
Scotland           Michael Moore         >1%               STAYS
Wales               Cheryl Gillan              >1%              STAYS
Culture             Jeremy Hunt              10%               Justine Greening
Chief Sec Trs   Danny Alexander       1%                 David Laws
Without Port    Baroness Warsi         11%                Liam Fox

Just remember, you heard it here first. But wait Breaking news after the Sack Osborne campaign has taken off, with the Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail and Guardian taking up the cause spurred on by Lib Dems like Lord Oakeshott, David Cameron has been forced to tell Sky News that Osborne will be Chancellor when the Conservatives face the 2015 electorate - that makes his list of Lame Duck Ministers include - Hunt, Warsi, Osborne and May. What crime does a Tory Minister have to commit to get sacked ? - incompetence?, Consorting with the Murdochs?, Questionable overseas trips? - ah yes Cameron has done all these himself.

Meanwhile in the real world the economy faces it's biggest challenge ever - beating the 1930's depression into a cocked hat.

The Liberal Solution of Keynes

Crunch time has come for the Coalition. On the Conservative back benches - rebel MPs have had their first taste of blood and are in the ascendancy. The Political genie is out of the bottle and Conservatives now want to return to Tory Policies. They want to cut back the size of the state, end the deficit, cut taxes for taxpayers, restore the armed forces and get the hell out of Europe.
As for the Lib Dems we are on the face of it traditionally and ideologically opposed to most of this. If however on the other hand, real economic growth in the economy can be stimulated by real quantitative easing and not just the pretend quantitative easing, and if this growth could get to the hands of taxpayer, consumers and small businesses and away from the hands of bankers, public sector workers, the filthy rich and big business (the HSBC's & G4's of this world) then perhaps we have a game changer.


Simon Jenkins of the Guardian has put his finger on the QE Scam by our incompetent Bank of England run by the keystone cops. Jenkins quite rightly calls for an old fashioned fiscal stimulus which puts money in the hands of the people and not the bankers,as correctly identifies there is insufficent demand in the economy. He aired his plan on BBC This Week on 19th July and it reminds me of the 1972 Barber Boom but given the near death state of British Growth at near 0% and Interest Rates at near 0% perhaps expanding demand by putting £100 billion in the hands of the Electorate - say £3000 per voter in a cheque from HMRC to spend now might just float the economy off the rocks.

GIVE THE MONEY TO THE PEOPLE NOT THE B***KERS

I certainly would give every unemployed person willing to start a business £10,000 to do so and keep them on benefits for a year while they did so. The new money in the economy would stimulate the high streets, manufacturing and services and give people the money to improve their lot. Of course with freedom of choice many would buy a foreign holiday, or spend on drink and tobacco but unemployment and welfare benefit payments would drop, tax revenues increase, consumer spending rise, the psychology of austerity end and there would be money to cut the deficit.

STILL ROOM FOR MORE DEFICIT PLAN CUTS BUT NOT WITHOUT GROWTH

Of Course at the same time measured and fairminded cuts to wasteful government spending could be made to shift the balance of the economy away from junk spending into wealth creation . A blend of Thatcher and Barber which might work. As for Europe and the Armed Forces, Lib Dems might differ on enthusiasm over Europe but we want a more democratic, higher growth and less bureaucratic europe as well and it was the Great Liberal Winston Churchill who alerted Britain to the folly of putting National Security after spending cuts. Of Course if the Tories are wedding to Austerity, then bring on Plan B.

For the Thatcherite remedy for another round of spending cuts - try the Guardian's Cut calculator to see if you could make some more intelligence and compassionate cuts than so far attempted - I made £164bn!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/interactive/2010/oct/19/comprehensive-spending-review-cuts

David Cameron,Stanley Baldwin and the Politics of the New Isolation

Stanley Baldwin

David Cameron

Which previous Tory politician does David Cameron remind you of ? - Go back along time and you find a David Cameron in the 1920's by the name of Stanley Baldwin. They both came from obscurity to seize the Conservative Leadership at a time of weakness in Traditional Conservative fortunes.



Cameron like Baldwin tried to change the Conservative Party and both men fell foul of the Conservative Press Barons. Stanley Baldwin like Cameron also turned his back on Europe at a time when a positive contribution by Britain would have prevented a meltdown in the European System.
In 1920's Europe - a system of economic weakness had been created by punitive wartime reparation payments and 1923 saw the collapse of the German Mark, while Britain led by Baldwin looked the other way. For the next few years a Conservative led Britain turned it's back on European problems, and followed an isolationist policy of protectionist tariffs and looked towards the British Empire. Baldwin's isolationist do nothing policy was followed by Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Nazi Germany and world war.

Germany endured hyperinflation which led to the preconditions for Nazi Germany, and it the legacy of the collapsed German Mark in 1923 which prevents German politicians of today taking the simple necessary measures to stabilise the current European Economy.

The Fear of this still stops Frankfurt Bankers fixing things

Today, David "Stanley" Cameron is hoping for peace in our time, and again has turned his back on European problems.
Europeans will either succeed in solving the problems of the Euro by creating a 2 speed Europe with a United European Superstate at it's centre which will gradually extend control. This new Europe will discriminate against British Interests, it will either be such a success that we will have wished we had joined, just like in 1963, and 1969 we had wished we had joined the EEC.

Will Britain be excluded from the Good New Europe?

Or the New Europe will be an authoritarian less democratic state with rigid controls and will threaten British Sovereignty and European freedoms in a way similar to Nazi Germany in 1933-39.

Will Britain be threatened by the Bad New Europe?

What if our European friends fail to sort out Europe's problems, the Euro will fail, and national currencies will  return and so will recrimination, blame, tariffs, border controls and nationalism. But also fear and all that comes with the politics of blame and fear. We only have to look at former Yugoslavia for what will be coming to the less stable parts of Europe and to 1930's Europe for the rest.

Could doing nothing lead to another Bosnia?

If the Eurozone fails Britain's exports to Europe which have been rising will suffer as all europeans will blame us for turning our backs and we will face tariff and standards barriers as well as consumer emnity. UK economic growth could collapse by 5-10%.

I leave the final word with US Economist Paul Klugman who is rapidly turning into the Maynard Keynes of his generation.

Will Liberals and Liberal Democrats shine the spotlight on Cameron's Politics of the New Isolation and get the relucant European British to help sort Europe to sort it's problems in a progressive collaborative and democratic way.

Suddenly the future's bright

 
Time to celebrate, the Tory knives are out for David Cameron. At the same time Lib Dems are coming to our senses about this rotten coalition.
The Tory back bench revolt over Lords Reform has alarm bells ringing in Conservative Central Office. Two reasons - Conservatives have had enough with Coalition politics (Just like in 1922 - they had it with Lloyd George voted him out and gave birth to the 1922 Committee.) and Lib Dems have realised that all the Tory Promises were just that Promises. The breaking of the Coalition agreement gives the Causus Belli to end the Coalition and launch a war against everything Tory.
No read this action plan suggested on a Tory Blog Conservative Home.

"at Lib Dem instigation, with an early General Election" forget a general election. the new rules give the Lib Dems much more power. They would be wiped out in a GE. Far more likely is a coalition with Labour. Ming and Charles pop along to see their old mate Alistair Darling, Vince has a chat with Lasagne Ed and Simon along with Tim go to see Nick Clegg and tell him the party is changing sides.

numbers work. 314 in Labour/Lib Dem coalition, on confidence and supply Alex Salmond gets offer of super dev and second question, gets him off the independence referendum hook, another 6. Plaid offered few sweets along with SDLP another 5. Sinn Fein and speaker don't count so 644 seats you need 323. Actually George Galloway not likely to join Tories so possible max on Tory side is 314 with unionists. enough for 3 years of Lib Dem/Labour administration. Lib Dems restore their left credentials.

I wrote:
Sounds good to me Bruce where do I sign up?
http://liberaldemocratfuture.blogspot.co.uk/

Take heart Lib Dems, if they wan't war, (which they really do - see the Plan to split and annihilate our party) they let us give them just that.

The first step is across the floor, the second is back into government with a trully progressive alliance.

The Lib Dem Frog in the Boiling Coalition Water

Everyone knows the story of the Frog and the Boiling Water (this is a cruel thing to do and definately not right) which is a modern parable to warn us of the dangers of inaction in the face of stealthy change. The Frog is boiled because the water gradually gets warm, then hot and by the time it realises the danger it is too late. Right now - we - The Liberal Democrats are that Frog, and the water feels pretty warm now.  We have given this coaliton 2 years and it is clear that things are not going to get better, in fact they are getting much worse and rapidly.

• The Conservative Plan for the economy and paying down the deficit which is the main plank of coalition policy has led to a cycle of austerity which has lowered tax take and actually increased borrowing.
• The Conservatives have not kept to their coalition pledges and have now scuppered voting reform and now reform of the House of Lords, something Liberals and Lib Dems have been working for 100 years.
• Conservatives are now embarking on a stealth agenda which will kill the NHS, restore Grammar School selective education, leave Europe as we know it, end Universal Welfare Benefits -all a Thatcherite wet dream and something even Margaret Thatcher wouldn't dared to do.
• The Boundary Commission will ensure the loss of 17 Lib Dem seats at 2015, the success of the 2014 SNP Scottish Independence Referendum (do to the stripping away of 30 Scottish Seats) and a Tory dominated England, Wales & Northern Ireland when Scottish Labour MPs are taken out of the equation - ie the End of the UK as we know it

This is all our doing, and for sure the Lib Dems will be blamed by all sides.  If this comes to pass, the Party will be wiped out at the Polls, but before that it will have split into 3 groups (one Pro-Tory, One Pro-Labour and one tiny survivor group)

Just like Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Nazi Germany in 1938 at Munich which brought neither Peace nor Honour, the Lib Dem continuence of David Cameron's Neo-Thatcherite Conservatives until 2015 will bring neither political safety or honour to the Party.

Now they have visibly broken the Coalition Agreement, we are not bound to allow this car-crash of a government to survive a day longer and

THE TIME HAS COME FOR THE FROG TO JUMP!