Sunday Telegraph predicts Lib Dem Revival

An opinion poll commissioned by the Sunday Telegraph points to the Lib-Dems achieving 18% at the 2015 General Election. It clearly shows a general revival in expectations of Lib Dem support in 2015 along with pressure on the Conservatives in 2015 from UKIP. Labour is the most likely winner in 2015, yet a party led by Ed Milliband is unlikely to command a majority of public confidence in 2015. With a strong showing from UKIP, the Conservative manifesto in 2015 will seek to appeal to UKIP voters just as the Labour manifesto will seek to attract disaffected Lib Dem voters. This positioning in the event of hung parliament will propell opinion into a Lib-Lab coalition with a Tory-UKIP opposition.

It may well be that Labour secures a Blairite Majority of 162 under First past the post, with Lib Dem support similar to the 1997-2000 period.

It is likely that the 2015-2020 period will show a Lib Dem-Green-labour alliance in opposition to Con-UKIP.

Eastleigh saves the day

The electors of Eastleigh have given the Liberal Democrats a continuance of the coalition but also a warning that 2015 will see a significant protest vote for UKIP and the real possibility of a hung parliament.

It is most likely that Labour will be returned to run the next government but they may lack a working majority. Cooperation between Labour and the Lib Dems over the Leveson Vote on March 16th will herald the way for future Lib-Lab arrangements over opposition to Conservative Austerity and the promotion of a practical plan for economic growth, following another failed Osborne Budget. A growing consensus between Bank of England Governor, Vince Cable, Ed Balls and leading financial journals such as the Economist and the Financial Times will see a 2 fold plan to lower the deficit and stimulate growth.

Areas for Budget Cuts

• Switching major government purchases towards a "Buy British" - increasing the % of government spending to UK owned and based companies, especially SMEs in preference to US, Chinese, and European corporations
• Maintaining spend on employees whilst tackling waste in all government departments including IT spend, NHS waste 
• Relocation government jobs out of the expensive South East and London towards Northern England and Wales where salary costs are 50% the London average. Major sell off of land, government buildings and real estate in London which raises £500 billion. Relocation of Houses of Parliament from London, closure of MOD offices in London. 
• Closure of all Job Centres
• Tobacco Duty raised by 50%
• Supermarket Alcohol Duty of 50 p per unit
• HS2 Scrapped
• Trident Replacement scrapped
• Banking Reorganisation scrapped, Banks shares given to public.
• Smoking Ban to be amended to ban smoking in presence of children, and allow smokers rooms (with air extraction) in pubs, smoking banned in beer gardens and public streets.

Areas for economic stimulus

• Cut in Fuel Duty takes 10p off petrol and stimulates growth while cutting inflation
• Ending of Job Seekers allowance which is replaced by Payroll Work Experience Credit paid to employers which are given one unemployed person per company.
• Sole Trader Corporation Tax Rate reduced to 10%
• Limited Company Small Business Corporation Tax Rate reduced to 15%
• All Social Housing and Government buildings to be insulated and given solar panels 
• Stamp Duty scrapped
• Employers National Insurance Holiday paid by Mansion Tax on £2m houses
• VAT Cut to 17.5 % paid by ending zero rating on books and food and extending VAT to all businesses.
• Infrastructure projects - Severn Barrage, Electric Car points
• All UK businesses to be assisted to employ, export and carry out e-business.

We're not in it together, try I'm alright jack

George Osborne's lying slogan "We're in this together" can be more truthfully translated as "I'm alright Jack". The Autumn Statement is an admission of failure, which has made necessary a raid on 4G funds to disguise a rise in the deficit and eyewatering levels of UK debt. Britain will shortly lose the cherished AAA rating. It is clear that Austerity Britain is a smoke screen for a stealth Conservative agenda to:

• Shrink the state
• Weaken trade unions
• Roll back Health and Safety
• Roll back Employment rights
• Roll back Human Rights
• Restore Private and Grammar School education
• Destroy the NHS
• Gerrymander UK Democracy through boundary change and Scottish Independence to ensure tory dominance
• Smash the Liberal Democrats and steal their support
• Take Britain out of Europe

SHAME ON THEM
Nevertheless - industry will have been helped and consumers cheered by a freeze in fuel duty, cuts in income tax rates for low pay (through rise in allowances) and cuts in corporation tax. 4/10 for trying.

Key steps for growth

1. Return Banks to Normalcy and free them to lend and not pad balance sheets
2. Supertax on £2million Mansions
3. Ban the Use of the word "Austerity" - it stops spending and blocks investment
4. Ensure £20 billion of sacred cow Conservative Spending by bringing troops home, re-thinking trident, cutting civil service jobs in London and the South East and selling off expensive London White elephants like the Houses of Parliament (cost £1.6billion), rethink HS2, Make Gatwick the UK global hub.

Clegg's Leveson Opportunity

Finally an opportunity has afforded itself to Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats to shift the political tides in a more favourable direction. The Leveson Report has overwhelming public support.

The public demands that Tabloid Newspapers are finally cleaned up and prevented from widescale malpractice for profit. David Cameron has shifted from welcoming the Report before publication to opposing regulation of the press. Nick Clegg has broken ranks and along with Ed Milliband is backing the Leveson Report.

Here is the cause celebre required to break with the Tories and make common cause with Labour. Cross Party talks on Leveson should form the basis of Labour-Liberal Democrat cooperation for Economic Growth and Deficit Reduction, Combating UK Child Poverty, Promoting UK EU Membership, Taxation and Youth Unemployment, and a strong Federal United Kingdom.
Already Ed Balls has suggested cooperation with Vince Cable, such conversations could also include constructive dialogue by Lib Dem Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet colleagues with the objective of strengthening the progressive agenda in parliament and within government.
If David Cameron attempts to block or water down Leveson, Clegg and Milliband must sponsor a Lib-Lab Bill in parliament to gain maximum cross party support in favour of a Leveson Bill to provide Legal safeguarding to any independent press abuse watchdog.

This might precipitate the break-up of the coalition but it would be on an issue of principle and an issue where Clegg is in tune with public opinion and Cameron is seen as the puppet of Murdoch and the Daily Mail.

Should this become a vote of confidence in the Cameron government - Clegg should show no fear in making a new "Leveson Coalition" with Labour or fighting an election in 2013 on the slogan - "Pro-Leveson, Pro-Growth".

The Tories and UKIP

The new face of British politics is emerging from the Age of Austerity and the face is that of beaming UKIP leader Nigel Farage.

Conservative Vice Chairman Michael Fabricant is urging an electoral pact with UKIP to enable the Conservative Party to win the next election. At the same time the Conservatives are trying to extend the Austerity psychology to turn the clock back to the 1950's. Put the political jigsaw together - the return of O levels, attempts to restrict access to degrees to a small elite, the rise of the rented sector, the pricing of ordinary working class motorists off the road, the rolling back of human rights, employment legislation and health and safety law before 1974. Watch out for the return of corporal punishment, hanging, steam trains, grammar schools, the golden age of atomic power and national service. We've already an old etonian in downing street so rev up the Bentley it's back to the 50's.
What of the future of the Lib Dem-Conservative Coalition? - already we've had back pedalling and blatant renaging on the coalition agreement from the Tories. With the prospect with a post 2015 Anti-European and crypto-rascist right wing coalition between the Tories and UKIP looming, now is the time for the Lib Dems to accuse their present partners of political infidelity and forge a pro-growth, pro-europe and pro-human rights coalition with Labour and the Greens to deliver the correct mix of policies need to return to sustainable prosperity. Chancellor Osborne warns the Age of Austerity lasting 8 years (why because he wants this to happen)
It is clear that the conservatives are intent on using recession, debt and deficit to pursue a covert agenda aimed at social, political and economic rengineering of Britain which will end in the break up the Union, and the exit of britain from europe. Can the Lib Dems block such actions? Is it time to change the incumbent in downing street from Cameron to Milliband.
It is clear that with the nicely timed "Fostergate" issue breaking on the Rotherham By-election that UKIP will do very well in the protest vote.
What UKIP fail to realise that millions of UK jobs in the food, farming and manufacturing industry have relied upon east european migrant labour doing the low paid unpleasant jobs - such as abatoir work and agricultural labouring to enable industries being based in the UK. Had this work not been done, then food companies and certain manufacturers would have been forced to relocate to low cost centres like Portugal and Poland in the 1990's. Just like the London buses and NHS migrant labour has been essential to keep key infrastructure working. If more effective effort had been put into apprenticeships and vocational training then we might see more UK workers in these roles.

Things could be better, things could be much worse

Tory policies (NHS reform, education reforms, police chiefs) and politicians  (Mitchell, Nadine et al) continue to implode nicely and Lib Dem arguments in favour of taking a harder line against press barons, tax dodgers and Bankers are winning through. Our dogs may bark but beware the sneaky tory caravan rolls on towards 2015. The Conservatives are increasingly shedding their Cameron skins and breaking cover as Thatcher's Children. What is clear is that they will from a policy point of view fighting it out with UKIP for the Right Wing vote leaving the Lib Dems and Labour contesting the Centre Ground and Left of Centre Vote. Had the Lib Dems not entered into the coalition with the Tories this ought to be very good news for the party but we are sadly toxically damaged by being willing accomplices .

As the political game stands at the moment - the only certain thing about 2015 is that the Lib Dems have a high risk of electoral meltdown. So the cards are stacked against us. We keep playing the game, in the hope of events coming to our rescue, but it is increasingly clear that the Conservatives strategy of winning 2015 is based upon the annihilation of the Lib Dems (just like 1924) according to George Osborne's cunning plan, amongst many.

 What to do ? - one option (described as the nuclear option) is to simply formally leave the coalition on a matter of moral issue (and there are plenty of them) and leave the Labour Party to take over government on a supply and confidence basis. We have a fixed term parliament so there is a legal requirement for the government to function until 2015 and we can threaten to conclude an electoral "pro-growth" pact with Labour (and possibly other parties) to deter a conservative vote of confidence in parliament. This would allow the Lib Dems to distance our party from the Conservatives, allow the Conservatives to morph into UKIP (Mk2) unfettered and give some better prospect of survival. If we allow the party to be smashed in the 2015 polls, it will split into 2 tiny groups - a Liberal Orange Book Party to be absorbed by the Conservatives, and a Social Liberal Party to be swallowed by Labour.

We can clearly go on for another year or two making mischief of Tory policies from within the coalition but as Tory policies fail they will surely blame us, or tear themselves apart. Either way it will be messy and Labour can take the moral high ground.
We could play the straight bat, trudge on it the national interest, take the blows from all sides and do our best - but without a credible economic plan and a triple dip possible/likely this seem like the actions of stoic lemmings (look at the Liberal Party during the First World War) .
Wait and See until Spring?  - the procrastinators option of muddling on is tempting, hopefully a good retail Christmas, a drop in fuel and gas prices, further growth in the enterprise economy to offset public sector cuts - some of this will happen but european and international forces will drag growth down in 2013 unless we see some dramatic action from Obama and Europe to kick start things (unlikely).
So after all - we will keep plodding on then in the national interest, keeping the government in power like a loyal wife being cheated on and knowing that a successor is being groomed (UKIP) to take our place as post 2015 coalition partner, and we will fall on our swords in 2015. Still the idea of tipping up the game board does excite.

A Proud Day for the Party

Today's Liberal Democrat Conference Debate on the Economy has shown that the Party remains solidly behind the Coalition Government, the Party Leadership and Nick Clegg's continuing Leadership. Defeat of the Social Liberal Forum's Amendment 1 was overwhelming and it brought solid fighting attacks on the bankruptcy of Ed Ball's Siren calls for Plan B when already Liberal Democrats were successfully fighting for a Green Growth Strategy and Investment Programme in government along with a more practical implementation of Deficit reduction within the credible framework supported by the IMF and Global Investors. Vince Cable's witty, authoritative and masterful speech announcing a Billion Pound British Bank to help Small Businesses and Exporters was a substantial structural improvement.

The Party has come to terms with successes and failings so far in Government and is already beginning the political fightback for 2015.

Brilliant contributions from Steve Webb, Jo Swinson, Vince Cable, Tim Farron show a talented team of conviction politicians determined to put fairness at the heart of government.