Saving the Party

So here we are less than 1 year before the 2015 general election only 8% in the polls and looking like the beneficiaries of a voteless recovery. Here are the options for the party:
Immediate Commitments for the 2015 manifesto

1. Ditch HS2 - worth about £80 billion saving for investment in Renewables, tax cuts, and scrapping the hated Tuition Fees. - Probably worth about 2% points
2. Ditch Nick Clegg - despite having the arguments over Europe, Clegg couldn't win an honesty debate against the slimy and untrustworthy Nigel Farage so Clegg is clearly now part of the problem for the party - toxic and a drag on party recovery. Time to deploy a new leader - Tim Farron, Vince Cable or Jo Swinson.  - - Probably worth about 3% points
3. Ditch Tuition Fees - a toxic issue with under 35's and parents of under 25's. - Probably worth about 5% points
4. Ditch the coalition now - make the Conservatives a lame duck government - Lib Dems could cross the floor but keep the Government going on a lifesupport vote by vote basis. - Probably worth about 5% points
5. Ditch Ofsted and abandon all support for Gove, Free Schools and all his works - worth 3% -the teacher vote

end result 26 % poll vote in 2015.

What about the other parties - what could the Tories do? - Morph into UKIP and advocate an immediate 2015 referendum and exit from Europe - worth about 10-15% , scrap HS2 - 5% - result 37%

Labour options - drop HS2 - worth about 5% points, bring back Milliband the elder from USA (2%), Support a referendum (5%) - result 42%

All to play for then - not over yet.

HS2 London-Leeds-Edinburgh direct

The more you study the existing HS2 phase one and phase two routes you sooner you realise that the whole route has been drawn up by a civil servant with a red crayon. The 225 mph train will take a elongated 256 miles to travel from Leeds to London over a distance of 168 miles by straight line. My suggestion is to cut out Birmingham altogether where people can already reach London in under an hour and take a straight or straightish line from Leeds south to London, in 168 miles which could be travelled in a staggering 45 minutes, and 162 miles north to Edinburgh which would take another 45 minutes. HS2 phase one would start in Leeds and travel south to London over the East of England using Agricultural Land and away from Cities and Towns, and Likewise for HS2 Phase two striking South from Edinburgh.


The Route

Mori Polls show Lib Dems ahead of UKIP

AN IPSOS-MORI poll published today in the London Evening Standard shows that the Lib Dems are winning the battle against the reactionary forces of UKIP. The party rose in the polls up 1% to 13% ahead of UKIP on 11%.  Labour  continues to lose support down 3%.The party is gradually regaining lost supporters who defected to Labour and are returning to party as it debates Nigel Farage on the IN/OUT referendum. We are now only 4 points down against the party's support in February 2009 of 17% and the support is on a similar trajectory which saw support strength towards the election when the party polled 23%.

The Crimea Crisis - understanding Russia and opposing aggression

It is 100 years from the First World War, where an ethnic dispute in Eastern Europe dragged the world into war. It is 75 years since Nazi & Soviet
aggression in Eastern Europe dragged the world into the Second World War. All nations must look calmly and with understanding and determination that aggression is not rewarded and that minorities, democracy and self-determination are protected.
Russia's concerns about Ukrainian fascists are not without substance, however the Use of Military force to annex and intimidate democracies is not acceptable.
I have 3 suggestions to steer a course of respect and cooperation between Russia and the World.
FIRSTLY
a) An acknowledgement that Russia's concerns are legitimate and that fast moving events in Kiev have alarmed all policy makers.
b) A commitment by Kiev to exclude and confront Ukrainian Fascists such as Svoboda.

c) A recognition in the UK, US and Europe about the alarm the rise of Ultra Right and Anti-European "Freedom" type parties  such as Golden Dawn in Greece, National Front in France, UKIP in the UK and others in Hungary which is being perceived as a Rise in Fascism in Europe by Russia.
d) Real concern in Moscow about the potential of Ultra-Nationalists taking power in Russia to mirror the events in Ukraine.
d) A realisation that Europe and America signed up for a Power-Sharing agreement in Kiev which then collapsed when the Ukrainian president fled which caused the coming to power of Ukrainian democrats.

SECONDLY
a) The US and Europe to table a proposal to seek Russian agreement that the UN Security Council approve the sending a UN Peace Keeping Force to Crimea to replace Russian(Militia) troops.
b) A UN plebiscite be held to approve Crimea move to International UN Control
c) Sending of UN Peacekeepers to Ukraine/Russia border

THIRDLY
a) An international UN commission to establish the future status of the Crimea.
b) Economic and Asset freezing if Russia opposes a negotiated settlement to the Issue.
c) If Russia annexes further Ukraine territory and refuses negotiated agreement, negotiations opened to allow accession of the Ukraine to partial associate NATO membership to allow military defence of a defined core-military defence area for the Western part of Ukraine covering Ukrainian speaking majority areas.
d) Ultimately a deal with Russia which acknowledges the fact of the need to protect Russian minorities might include a trade off on Syria where Russia would support real efforts to change the Assad regime and help humanitarian efforts in the Syrian Civil War while preventing the outbreak of a Ukraine Civil War.