George Osborne's lying slogan "We're in this together" can be more truthfully translated as "I'm alright Jack". The Autumn Statement is an admission of failure, which has made necessary a raid on 4G funds to disguise a rise in the deficit and eyewatering levels of UK debt. Britain will shortly lose the cherished AAA rating. It is clear that Austerity Britain is a smoke screen for a stealth Conservative agenda to:
Shrink the state
Weaken trade unions
Roll back Health and Safety
Roll back Employment rights
Roll back Human Rights
Restore Private and Grammar School education
Destroy the NHS
Gerrymander UK Democracy through boundary change and Scottish Independence to ensure tory dominance
Smash the Liberal Democrats and steal their support
Take Britain out of Europe
SHAME ON THEM
Nevertheless - industry will have been helped and consumers cheered by a freeze in fuel duty, cuts in income tax rates for low pay (through rise in allowances) and cuts in corporation tax. 4/10 for trying.
Key steps for growth
Return Banks to Normalcy and free them to lend and not pad balance sheets
Supertax on £2million Mansions
Ban the Use of the word "Austerity" - it stops spending and blocks investment
Ensure £20 billion of sacred cow Conservative Spending by bringing troops home, re-thinking trident, cutting civil service jobs in London and the South East and selling off expensive London White elephants like the Houses of Parliament (cost £1.6billion), rethink HS2, Make Gatwick the UK global hub.
Finally an opportunity has afforded itself to Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats to shift the political tides in a more favourable direction. The Leveson Report has overwhelming public support.
The public demands that Tabloid Newspapers are finally cleaned up and prevented from widescale malpractice for profit. David Cameron has shifted from welcoming the Report before publication to opposing regulation of the press. Nick Clegg has broken ranks and along with Ed Milliband is backing the Leveson Report.
Here is the cause celebre required to break with the Tories and make common cause with Labour. Cross Party talks on Leveson should form the basis of Labour-Liberal Democrat cooperation for Economic Growth and Deficit Reduction, Combating UK Child Poverty, Promoting UK EU Membership, Taxation and Youth Unemployment, and a strong Federal United Kingdom.
Already Ed Balls has suggested cooperation with Vince Cable, such conversations could also include constructive dialogue by Lib Dem Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet colleagues with the objective of strengthening the progressive agenda in parliament and within government.
If David Cameron attempts to block or water down Leveson, Clegg and Milliband must sponsor a Lib-Lab Bill in parliament to gain maximum cross party support in favour of a Leveson Bill to provide Legal safeguarding to any independent press abuse watchdog.
This might precipitate the break-up of the coalition but it would be on an issue of principle and an issue where Clegg is in tune with public opinion and Cameron is seen as the puppet of Murdoch and the Daily Mail.
Should this become a vote of confidence in the Cameron government - Clegg should show no fear in making a new "Leveson Coalition" with Labour or fighting an election in 2013 on the slogan - "Pro-Leveson, Pro-Growth".
The new face of British politics is emerging from the Age of Austerity and the face is that of beaming UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
Conservative Vice Chairman Michael Fabricant is urging an electoral pact with UKIP to enable the Conservative Party to win the next election. At the same time the Conservatives are trying to extend the Austerity psychology to turn the clock back to the 1950's. Put the political jigsaw together - the return of O levels, attempts to restrict access to degrees to a small elite, the rise of the rented sector, the pricing of ordinary working class motorists off the road, the rolling back of human rights, employment legislation and health and safety law before 1974. Watch out for the return of corporal punishment, hanging, steam trains, grammar schools, the golden age of atomic power and national service. We've already an old etonian in downing street so rev up the Bentley it's back to the 50's.
What of the future of the Lib Dem-Conservative Coalition? - already we've had back pedalling and blatant renaging on the coalition agreement from the Tories. With the prospect with a post 2015 Anti-European and crypto-rascist right wing coalition between the Tories and UKIP looming, now is the time for the Lib Dems to accuse their present partners of political infidelity and forge a pro-growth, pro-europe and pro-human rights coalition with Labour and the Greens to deliver the correct mix of policies need to return to sustainable prosperity. Chancellor Osborne warns the Age of Austerity lasting 8 years (why because he wants this to happen)
It is clear that the conservatives are intent on using recession, debt and deficit to pursue a covert agenda aimed at social, political and economic rengineering of Britain which will end in the break up the Union, and the exit of britain from europe. Can the Lib Dems block such actions? Is it time to change the incumbent in downing street from Cameron to Milliband.
It is clear that with the nicely timed "Fostergate" issue breaking on the Rotherham By-election that UKIP will do very well in the protest vote.
What UKIP fail to realise that millions of UK jobs in the food, farming and manufacturing industry have relied upon east european migrant labour doing the low paid unpleasant jobs - such as abatoir work and agricultural labouring to enable industries being based in the UK. Had this work not been done, then food companies and certain manufacturers would have been forced to relocate to low cost centres like Portugal and Poland in the 1990's. Just like the London buses and NHS migrant labour has been essential to keep key infrastructure working. If more effective effort had been put into apprenticeships and vocational training then we might see more UK workers in these roles.
Tory policies (NHS reform, education reforms, police chiefs) and politicians (Mitchell, Nadine et al) continue to implode nicely and Lib Dem arguments in favour of taking a harder line against press barons, tax dodgers and Bankers are winning through. Our dogs may bark but beware the sneaky tory caravan rolls on towards 2015. The Conservatives are increasingly shedding their Cameron skins and breaking cover as Thatcher's Children. What is clear is that they will from a policy point of view fighting it out with UKIP for the Right Wing vote leaving the Lib Dems and Labour contesting the Centre Ground and Left of Centre Vote. Had the Lib Dems not entered into the coalition with the Tories this ought to be very good news for the party but we are sadly toxically damaged by being willing accomplices .
As the political game stands at the moment - the only certain thing about 2015 is that the Lib Dems have a high risk of electoral meltdown. So the cards are stacked against us. We keep playing the game, in the hope of events coming to our rescue, but it is increasingly clear that the Conservatives strategy of winning 2015 is based upon the annihilation of the Lib Dems (just like 1924) according to George Osborne's cunning plan, amongst many.
What to do ? - one option (described as the nuclear option) is to simply formally leave the coalition on a matter of moral issue (and there are plenty of them) and leave the Labour Party to take over government on a supply and confidence basis. We have a fixed term parliament so there is a legal requirement for the government to function until 2015 and we can threaten to conclude an electoral "pro-growth" pact with Labour (and possibly other parties) to deter a conservative vote of confidence in parliament. This would allow the Lib Dems to distance our party from the Conservatives, allow the Conservatives to morph into UKIP (Mk2) unfettered and give some better prospect of survival. If we allow the party to be smashed in the 2015 polls, it will split into 2 tiny groups - a Liberal Orange Book Party to be absorbed by the Conservatives, and a Social Liberal Party to be swallowed by Labour.
We can clearly go on for another year or two making mischief of Tory policies from within the coalition but as Tory policies fail they will surely blame us, or tear themselves apart. Either way it will be messy and Labour can take the moral high ground.
We could play the straight bat, trudge on it the national interest, take the blows from all sides and do our best - but without a credible economic plan and a triple dip possible/likely this seem like the actions of stoic lemmings (look at the Liberal Party during the First World War) .
Wait and See until Spring? - the procrastinators option of muddling on is tempting, hopefully a good retail Christmas, a drop in fuel and gas prices, further growth in the enterprise economy to offset public sector cuts - some of this will happen but european and international forces will drag growth down in 2013 unless we see some dramatic action from Obama and Europe to kick start things (unlikely).
So after all - we will keep plodding on then in the national interest, keeping the government in power like a loyal wife being cheated on and knowing that a successor is being groomed (UKIP) to take our place as post 2015 coalition partner, and we will fall on our swords in 2015. Still the idea of tipping up the game board does excite.
Today's Liberal Democrat Conference Debate on the Economy has shown that the Party remains solidly behind the Coalition Government, the Party Leadership and Nick Clegg's continuing Leadership. Defeat of the Social Liberal Forum's Amendment 1 was overwhelming and it brought solid fighting attacks on the bankruptcy of Ed Ball's Siren calls for Plan B when already Liberal Democrats were successfully fighting for a Green Growth Strategy and Investment Programme in government along with a more practical implementation of Deficit reduction within the credible framework supported by the IMF and Global Investors. Vince Cable's witty, authoritative and masterful speech announcing a Billion Pound British Bank to help Small Businesses and Exporters was a substantial structural improvement.
The Party has come to terms with successes and failings so far in Government and is already beginning the political fightback for 2015.
Brilliant contributions from Steve Webb, Jo Swinson, Vince Cable, Tim Farron show a talented team of conviction politicians determined to put fairness at the heart of government.
Liberal Democrats can take heart that for once we have been the centre of attention. In the old days when David Steel said his famous lines "Go back to your constituencies ... and prepare for government" the other parties (and public laughed) well we have been in government for 2+ years and what we say and think matters. Admittedly we got some things (a lot wrong) and we been blamed (wrongly) for the things the Conservatives have done and compelled us to agree with , but that's Coalition Government. When Britain faced a political crisis in May 2010, I didn't see Labour or the Conservatives coming together to save the economy - did you? If Lib Dems had said we're not getting our hands dirty, and refused to talk to the other parties then we would have had a weak and indecisive minority Conservative government without mandate to do anything and the economy would have been in the toilet. Instead we have had strong (not always joined up) government but Lib Dem popularity has taken the hit.
We might be in single figures in the polls, have a leader as popular as Michael Foot but the eyes on the world are on us and we have even captured the very short attention span of the big brother 15 seconds of You Tube fame which is popular culture with Nick Clegg's "I'm Sorry Parody". Defying conventional wisdom, this week's Lib Dem Conference in Brighton will strangely renew Nick Clegg's leadership and put and end to the Right wing drift of the Party. At a fringe meeting today Labour's Policy wonk John Cruddas even praised the positive role the Lib Dems have had as a break on right wing Toryism. All the critisism of Clegg has been taken on the chin and on board. The Political fightback can begin, with Lib Dems united and determined to hold the line against an autumn of radical right "Tea Party" style Conservative attacks on Britain.
Tim Farron Party President is witty in saying that George Osborne has abandoned Plan A, since Michael Gove has marked down his grade to Plan B. It is good to see that the Party's call for a tax on the super rich is now policy and remembering that the party has already taken so many low paid people out of income tax already.
Clegg has been branded a liar (on the basis of the Tuition fee cock-up) by politicians on the Left and Right who have a long list of massive deceptions and blunders to their name, (Iraq, End to Boom and Bust, NHS Safe with us) and it is time the party rallies to his cause.
We must be determined to renew the coalition to it's dual task of reducing the budget deficit whilst stimulating economic growth and Ed Davey's speech on Tory attempts to block Lib Dem Green Growth strikes the right note. Not sure about Jo Swinson's joke about Jeremy Thorpe or Norman Baker's plan for road charges though. Nick Clegg has correctly expressed the public concern on tax evasion by the super rich while the poor are paying more and earning less. Welfare reform has started to highlight potential savings from greedy people but Lib Dems must work to protect the genuine needy in this process. Steve Webb's efforts to fix the Pension timebomb are laudable but it is the economic hear and now we need to fix, we need to win today to fix tommorrow.
Nick Clegg is safe and he will be able to build on this as a bruising but catharthic experience to reconnect with the party.
If we fight hard, then mistakes made in 5 days in May, will be put to one side. What matters now is to get growth , keep our civic rights (employment, human and safety) and relations (especially with Europe) good and deliver on the deficit reduction. If the Lib Dem left is given a proper role in this and not rail-roaded then we might even be able to forge effective inter party policy agreements with the enemy (Conservatives) for the good of the Country - stronger defences (bring back Ark Royal, Sea Harriers, HMS Brittania, Concorde) , putting Afghanistan on a sustainable security footing and boosting Britain's exports with the BRIC group. Perhaps if we can get effective tax gathering for the super-rich we can see cuts in taxes on jobs and wealth creation - eg VAT, NI, Corporation Tax, High Street Rates and Fuel Duty.
Nick Clegg is facing his personal political Dunkirk. His popularity is at Rock Bottom with the public and his party. His political mea culpa has been ridiculed and he is facing calls for his resignation.
How he now reacts will determine his future and the recovery of his party's fortunes. On the one hand he could react defensively and with pride and like Tory Whip Andrew Mitchell over "Plebgate" or Tony Blair over Iraq could continue with half an apology, arrogance and hubris. Or he like Winston Churchill after Dunkirk turn a disaster into a Political Victory.
If I were him, I would ensure that the Youtube Viral Hit "Im Sorry" was played at his entrance into the Party Conference.
If I were him, I would take it with good humour and take ownership of the humiliation. If necessary why not travel like Lempik Opeg to the Australian Jungle to eat his "I'm a Celebrity - Jungle Humble Pie". It can only improve his popularity and it is how unpopular celebrities redeem themselves with the public, which is what he needs to do. If not (then perhaps Europe beckons?)
Clegg can still show Leadership and turn blunder and humiliation into success. It's only over when it's over and the public loves an underdog - especially one they kicked, but the trick is to still smile. Not a job I would want but I'm not Vince Cable.
The Recent falls in Unemployment pressage better times perhaps .
We all remember the D-ream song "Things can only get better" as Tony Blair beamed through the crowds into Downing Street, and of course they got worse. For Liberal Democrats that prospect of a Progressive coalition with
Blair's Labour disappeared in 1997 and reappeared briefly in 2010 when a
desperate Gordon Brown clung to office. I myself preferred a
Progressive, Pro-Growth coalition rather than the Anti-Growth, Austerity
Coalition we ended up, however like many other Lib Dems I was seduced to the dark side by the Holy Grail of an AV referendum.
Today's Mea Culpa from Nick Clegg is only half
an apology and two years too late. He ought to say sorry for not putting
opposition to tuition fees at the Top of the negotiating list (ahead of AV) for the
Coalition Agreement in May 2010, not for making the pledge. A double mistake which has cost us the Student Vote, 50% of our support and saw the cause of PR put back 20 years.
We are where we are. We are at the bottom of the electoral cycle, whether we can climb out of the hole of our own making is on whether growth returns, and we can put right wrongs against students and detoxify the party image from one of blundering liars and self-serving opportunists (which we are NOT). Liberal Democrats need to point out that in the 5 days that we had in May 2010 to save the country, we succeeded in doing so but made a rushed decision which damaged our party. This mistake, though probably the most serious blunder in our Party's History was nothing compared the giant lies and errors from the Labour Government 1997-2010 ( the Iraq War, selling the Gold reserves for next to nothing, giving the Bankers a blank cheque, wasting billions, rising National Debt, budget deficit etc) and the same from the Tories (remember the 1980's?, Poll Tax, George Osborne's Budget?). By comparison the choices over Tuition Fees and AV pale by comparison but to those they affected were life changing.
Made the Mess, then Ran away
Labour's crocodile tears (especially Ed Balls) need to be exposed. They presided over the Banking Crisis, and threw trillions of pounds of taxpayers money to fix it, and having left the treasury empty ran for cover. Ed Balls could have been Chancellor now, helping to solve the problem but he ran for the Leadership instead.
Labour did leave the Coalition with a moderate recovery which George Osborne has choked off.
AV/Lord Reform Trickster
The Central economic problem is a lack of effective demand in the economy not bottlenecks in the supply side of the economy. One half of the country is too poor to spend and the other half too frightened. We need confidence - confidence that house prices will be stable, confidence that our jobs are safe and confidence that prices will not outstip our ability to keep up with the bills.
Beecroft Style Tory Supply Side Reforms will depress demand
The Radical Tory right have got it all wrong with their attempts to bash public sector workers and remove employment and safety rights for workers across the economy. We need to make it harder to sack or make people redundant. We need to put the trillions of QE money out of Bankers vaults into people's pockets to spend in local shops and businesses. The velocity of money needs speeding up by encouraging people to increase the number of buying transactions in the local economy - eg the Bristol Pound.
The Times today reported 2,000 tax exiles in Monaco costing the UK economy £1billion in lost tax revenue. There's some money to pay the Student Tuition fees and the price the Tories have to pay now for not honouring their side of the AV and Lords Reform pledges.
The party needs to fight it's corner within government and land some blows against Labour's disgraceful record in creating the mess that we're all in.
We need a positive vision of investment and a plan for growth including perhaps billeting unemployed people with Britain's Businesses - to get them economically active and ready for work.
With the surprise appointment of Jo Swinson to a second Ministerial Role as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Equalities to add to her reshuffle appointment of Parliamentary Under-Secretary of Stateat Business Innovation and Skills we can look forwards to Jo carrying on the good offices of Lynne Featherstone who held the Equality Portfolio from 2010-12.
Jo with a foot in Business and Equality can perhaps ensure that an Conservative Beecroft proposals to reduce employment protections to British workers will not expose vulnerable employees from the threat of sacking driven by discrimination from rogue employers - such as Construction Companies not employing asians (I once worked in such a company and was told not to employ an asian member of staff - I of course protested and reminded my company chairman of the illegality of the remark) or older workers facing age discrimination or women of child bearing age facing sex discrimination.
As Vince Cable rightly pointed out - the economic case - frightened workers don't spend money.
Liberal Democrats have to show courage, unity and determination in the remaining years of this Coalition. The prime task is to stimulate economic growth by a mixture of Liberal Democrat and Conservative Policies. The Challenge is to block lunatic dogmatically driven Conservative supply side measures like the Beecroft Report. Constructive Politics between Ed Balls, Ken Clarke and Vince Cable on issue driven economics can perhaps limit the damage that doctrinaire politics from Michael Fallon and George Osborne, who are going to be rightly identified as Neo-Thatcherite Conservatives.
Key Areas for Agenda 2013
Deficit Reduction
Cut in Government Spending and Jobs offset by lowering taxation which stangles growth - eg National Insurance, Petroleum Tax, Small Business Corporation Tax, Working Tax Credit penalties for Self-Employment
Re-balancing the Economy means moving government expenditure out of the expensive South East of England and into the Regions who can provide services at a fraction of the cost. Government buildings can be sold for residential and commercial property development.
Sell off MOD land and keep Britain's Defence Capabilities - eg Aircraft Carriers, Independent Nuclear Deterrent
Economic Policy
Return control of the economy to the Treasury and give the Treasury total control of the FSA and Bank of England.
Ensure that 100% of the NEETs are in a real scheme of training or employment, restructuring tuition fees so that current taxpayers earning over £100,000 who hold degrees which were funded by LEA Grants pay money to assist UK undergraduate students.
Uphold Health and Safety, Human Rights and Employment Rights Laws
Heathrow Airport - Build "Boris Island" on the Thames Estuary instead of expanding Heathrow.
High Speed Rail - recognise that Britain is not France or Japan and that a High Speed Rail system is too expensive and damaging for Britain. Spend money on improving Rail and Road bottlenecks in the current 5 years rather than White Elephant projects in 2020.
Severn Barrage - and Channel Road Tunnel - major imaginative infrastructure projects to lift construction sector and envision public.
Foreign Policy
Iran - A positive agenda is required whereby Iran and China and Pakistan are encouraged to take a constructive role in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan to send troops as peacekeepers/observers to promote peace and development. Ensure constructive dialogue between Iran and Israel which opposes the use of force and terrorism on either side.
Afghanistan - Troops out by 2015 to be replaced by a combined Iranian/Chinese Peacekeeping force with Afghanistan split into Zones of Influence.
Keeping Britain at the heart of Europe, uphold European Human Rights laws.
Defence and Defence of Democracy
Reversal of defence cuts and restoration of British Armed forces.
Use Boundary Change to end "Safe Seats" in parliament which are as anti-democratic as 19th century rotten boroughs. Engineer constituencies to maximise representative proportionality and marginality.
National Pride
Symbolic National Projects to capitalise on National Spirit - eg New Royal Yacht Brittania , British Space Programme based in South Atlantic - eg Falklands, Ascension, St Helena, Get Concorde Flying as official Royal and Prime Ministerial Plane to promote Britain, Get Ark Royal reinstated as National Aircraft Carrier flying Harrier Jumpjets.
Finally the Party has turned the corner and things are on the up. Nick Clegg has reached his low point in popularity and the economy now starts to show green shoots of genuine recovery. Conservative desparation over the Recent economic mismanagement by George Osborne highlights how much better Lib Dem Business Secretary would do in the job. The Jubilee and Olympics have effected a change in the UK. Firstly by keeping people glued to their TV Sets and out of the high street - it has depressed economic growth for almost 6 months - but the latest July manufacturing figures point to an autumn of growth and the national spirit has seen an outpouring of patriotism and celebration of all things British including tolerance and a celebration of diversity and the achievements of paralympic athletes, which has changed attitudes towards issues of disability.
2012 will be seen as the year the Coalition started to get it's act together. The Lib Dem leadership has been savaged (rightfully) by party critics but it has a real mandate to champion human rights, British Business Interests (especially in Europe) and Enviromentalism in the face of Right wing Conservatives who seem to have taken control in the Conservative side of the Coalition. True Liberal Democrats need to stand up for what is right in Government while forging links with Business and Communities to promote Exports, Growth and Jobs.
Time for hard work , determined principles and unity - which may yet bring a rightful outcome in 2015.
Finally the long overdue reshuffle is here. David Cameron has cleared out some of the dead wood, Baroness Warsi gone but Hunt and Osborne still in the Cabinet.
Osborne's toxic standing was shown in full light at the Paralympic Games Yesterday when he was booed in pantomine villan style by a crowd of 80,000.
No wonder given his low standing even amongst the Tory of the Daily TelegraphHere were our predictions in July JobIncumbentTelegraph Reader Vote to Go Replaced ByWhat actually happened
Chancellor George Osborne 25% Vince Cable OSBORNE
Home Sec Theresa May 20% William Hague MAY
Foreign Sec William Hague >1% George Osborne HAGUE
Defence Sec Phillip Hammond 2% STAYS HAMMOND
Business Sec Vince Cable 14% Danny Alexander CABLE
Work & Pens IDS 1% STAYS IDS though tried to move him
Justice Ken Clarke NA Theresa May GRAYLING
Climate Change Ed Davey >1% Caroline Spelman DAVEY
Health Sec Andrew Lansley 3% STAYS HUNT !!
Education Michael Gove 5% STAYS GOVE
Local Gov Eric Pickles 2% STAYS PICKLES
Transport Justine Greening 1% Damian Greene MCLAUGHLIN
Environment Caroline Spelman 1% David Willetts PATTERSON
International D Andrew Mitchell >1% STAYS GREENING
Northern Ire Owen Paterson >1 % STAYS VILLIERS
Scotland Michael Moore >1% STAYS MOORE
Wales Cheryl Gillan >1% STAYS JONES
Culture Jeremy Hunt 10% Justine Greening MILLER
Chief Sec Trs Danny Alexander 1% David Laws ALEXANDER
Without Port Baroness Warsi 11% Liam Fox CLARKE
Thankfully - Vince Cable has remained as Business Secretary but would have done a brilliant job replacing George Osborne.
Some Liberal Democrats have been brought into lower ministerial ranks like Jo Swinson and David Laws, sadly Sarah Teather has left the government.
What is clear is that the Conservative Right is now in the assendancy with Ken Clarke out of the Cabinet Ranks for the first time since the 1970's. Chris Grayling will try to do the Human Rights Act the same hatchet job he attempted at Health and Safety. McLaughlin has replaced the anti-heathrow Justine Greening and will now try to push another runway at Heathrow in opposition to Boris Johnson and half of West London, Bucks, Surrey, Berks.
The Assault on Middle English rights and freedoms will gather pace - prepare for the Green Belt to go and another Tory assault on employment and safety laws.
Can Vince Cable and Ken Clarke tag team Osborne and Norman Baker and Boris Johnson get a Thames Estuary London Airport.
The Coalition will run now until 2014, perhaps with Nick Clegg but more probably Vince Cable heading up the Party at 2015.
For what it's worth here is my own pick for a Lib Dem Government in 2015 (positive thinking).
Liberal Democrat Dream Team
Prime MinisterNick
Clegg
Deputy PMAlan
Beith
Chancellor of the ExchequerVince
Cable
Foreign SecretaryMenzies
Campbell
Home SecretaryLorely Burt
Defence SecretaryLord
Ashdown
Business SecretaryDavid
Laws
Work and PensionsSteve
Webb
JusticeJo
Swinson
Climate ChangeChris
Huhne
Health Sec Dr Evan Harris
Education Sarah Teather
Local Gov Simon Hughes
Transport Norman Baker
Environment Lynne
Featherstone
International D Julia
Goldsworthy
Northern Ire Lord
Alderdice
Scotland Charles
Kennedy
Wales
Roger
Williams
Culture
Julian
Hippert
Chief Sec Trs Danny
Alexander
Without PortfolioTim
Farron
Reshuffle fever is well under way, David Cameron has made his plans and having been labelled a mouse by his rebellious Tory mutineers is preparing to wield the axe. Never has a Prime Minister engaged in a re-shuffle with more trepidation. He claims to be ready to inject fire into the belly of the coalition. Yet his policy changes look more like a bonfire of long fought for rights and freedoms which will cause a storm of indignation in Tory and Liberal Middle England, as well as howls of protest from Trade Unions, Labour and the Professions.
Let us help Cameron for once.
First - leave the position of Liberal Democrat Cabinet and Government Ministers to Nick Clegg and say so.
Refuse all attempts by Conservative backbenchers to remove Vince Cable from Business as such an event would unlock the lynchpin holding the Liberal Democrats in the Coalition.
Listen to Liberal Democrats constructive voices and give Cable (who is able) a greater role in promoting economic growth.
Avoid clarion calls to dismantle human rights, health and safety and employment law protections to British workers who if faced with such an erosion of their rights will feel even unsafer in their jobs and less inclined to spend what money they have.
Get rid of the ministers perceived by the public to be toxic and sleazy in the government like Hunt and Warsi. - Show some metal and sack them.
Build a constructive dialogue with Lib Dems about Green Growth - and helping small businesses and business start ups.
Lib Dems are against Whitehall bureaucracy and red tape but believe in essential protections to safeguard individual rights against bullying councils, governments and employers.
Resist the destruction of the Green Belt - such an event would unite greens, Tory shire nimbys and Liberal Democrats and lead to an embarrassing climbdown.
The Central failure to deliver growth rests with your friend George Osborne - you must either sack him, or get him help (ie Cable) or move him to the Foreign Office or another high rank role.
Give Nick Clegg a proper Job instead of the Heseltine/Prescott noddy role of DPM
Bring more Women forward, more people from Comprehensive or Grammar School backgrounds and less public school millionaires.
Harness Boris Johnson into a Government Role by making him a Peer and say Foreign Secretary.
Enter into a constructive dialog with Trade Unions
Get the Super Rich to lend HMG money at 0% rather than tax their wealth.
Get money into the pockets of the middle class by cutting petrol tax and increase road tax on 4x4 to fund it.
Nick Clegg will need to detoxify himself and the Liberal Democrats by undoing the damage over tuition fees by wiping student debts. Lib Dems will need to be seen by the electorate as have prevented Tory stealth nastiness and have made a positive contribution to economic growth.
Of Course - we know you will do none of this, you will stick by your friends and stick it to the Lib Dems who will be forced to bring down the government by 2013. Labour will win the election, the Lib Dems wiped out at the polls and the leadership lost to Boris Johnson. Carry on Cameron.
Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg's Tax Bombshell has initiated clear orange water between Lib Dems and Conservative Coalition Partners. It has merit because to a hard pressed middle and working class electorate who have seen Banker Bonuses and the transfer of wealth to the richest by Quantative Easing it seems fair that the government should pass the hat and ask the wealthiest, especially the Tory donor non domicile tax cheats to pay their fair share.
Liberal Democrats want an enterprise economy where those at the top, ie the Sunday Times Rich List pay a fair proportion of their wealth and income (which has risen greatly since 2008) but which rewards hard work, innovation and enterprise.
Lord Oakeshott has called for a focus on de-toxifying the Lib Dem brand, and it is clear that as a Party Leader Nick Clegg has become toxic to party members as well as the electorate and has been seen as too cosy with David Cameron and the Tories in particular. The imminent return of Tory Friend and Clegg ally David Laws will only play to this.
If the Party is to recover market share - ie the 50% of voters who deserted in 2010 following the betrayl of the students over tuition fees then, we need to change course and change leader. Nick Clegg should recognise he is toxic to the voters and that he needs to take a sabattical as leader and allow a more popular figure like Charlie Kennedy or Vince Cable to return to the leadership of the Party.
The Party owes Nick Clegg a great debt for taking it higher in the polls and into the heart of government. But Nick Clegg has made serious mistakes (shared by his party colleagues at the time) in agreeing to the Tuition Fee reversal (sellout), not thinking through the poor chances of the AV referendum, and becoming political hostages to unpopular tory stealth politics. Nick Clegg should stay on as Deputy Prime Minister and even augment his role in government but the Liberal Democrat Party needs a harder and more popular focus in the country which says look were honouring the situation the electorate put us in 2010 but we are actively working to counter Tory Stealth Politics rather than appeasing them. A sharper focus against Ed Balls is need to expose the hypocracy of Labour trying to capitalise on the effects of their mismanagement. Above all we need a fairness and competent growth plan which make necessary welfare reform allied to cutting government waste, and cuts in taxes for the many and rises for the few (super rich).
This might be achieved with Cable as Chancellor but Cameron is unlikely to lay down his friend to enable this, so he must lose his ally instead.
Liberal Democrats and before them Liberals have since they left Government in 1922 always been the Kingmakers of British Politics and never the Kings. The successful ruling party whether Conservative or Labour always relied on Liberal votes to keep the other party in opposition.
Not to be admired
Whether we like or not Maggie Thatcher couldn't have entered No.10 in 1979 without a split in the Progessive Vote between Liberal and Labour and she certainly couldn't have survived in power in 1983 and 1987 without the existence of the SDP. Of course by Labour is certainly as much to blame by antagonising moderate opinion from 1979-1997 by adopting left wing policies.
Did the SDP help keep the 1980's Tory?
For the many of us who lived through the 1980's it is a sobering thought. Now today we are in formal alliance with the old enemy and the public can see the reality.
No-one's laughing
With the demise of PR as a proposition should we progressive minded left of centre politicos give up on the long held illusion of a radical left of centre liberal party which could make a difference and recognise that only an alliance with socialists and trade unionists will bring a truly progressive outcome.
Why are we in alliance with the tories - an unthinkable proposition in the 1970's, 1980's and 1990's?
For many of us - the prospect of AV was a tantalising opportunity for real representative democracy. We had a duty to keep the country running at a time of national crisis.
Yet incredibly we Liberal Democrats hold the country by the preverbial by our control of the balance of the 2010 Hung Parliament - we are the masters, we are the Kings if we are prepared to rule.
Bring back Charlie
Dare Cameron oppose an assertive Liberal Democrat ultimatum founded on sound ideals and popular support?
Remember this?
The Key election issue of 2015 will be the economy - we must forge links with business groups and trade unions to force through a Liberal Democratic Growth agenda which stands tall against the Radical Tory agenda to turn us into Little America.
The Conservatives are now splitting every which way in a desperate bid to find supply side reforms to unlock economic growth.
The Telegraph reports that Tory Transport Secretary Justine Greening is about to resign if the Tory aviation lobby wins it's attempt to get a third runway at Heathrow.
The Indepedent (i) reports the CPRE study showing the 81,000 housing threat to Britain's Green Belt under the Tory deregulation of planning laws
The Tories would like to scrap the Employment and Health and Safety Laws
Only Vince Cable seems to be holding back the Tory behemoth - vetoing attacks on employment law and permanent extension to Sunday Trading
Liberal Democrats need to make common cause to block lunatic Tory destruction of the quality of life - protections, green belt, etc and to steer the Conservatives into steps to get real growth going - by creating a million entrepreneurs, freeing up brownfield government land for development and ensuring that the construction industry gets properly funding and needed infrastructure projects like the severn barrage, wind farms, making britain's roads pothole free, earth shelter housing.
Liberal Democrats are now beginning to wonder whether the Conservative Party can remain united in the run up to 2015 as thatcherite "Torch" right wing tories demand US style vandalism to Britain and centrist Conservatives try to hold the line on Sunday Trading, Green Belt and Environmentalism.
The New Right is even prepared to see the breakup of the Union and Britain out of Europe if this guarantees dominance in England for their lunatic politics.
We can all see the 2015 "electoral ice berg" ahead and our very own Captain Clegg has at full steam ahead while he dines with the Tories in the Grand Dining Rooms of Westminster.
Electoral Pundits have rightly predicted that 2015 could see the Party reduced to 10 MPs - a return to pre-1979 levels.
For us Liberal Democrats in steerage class and without prospect of a seat on a lifeboat - the band plays on!
Yet an analysis of the Titantic disaster shows that it could have missed the iceberg if it had steered away in time.
We can see the iceberg (10% in the polls - loss of 40-50 MPs) we need to steer a course away from danger whilst we need to mindful of Winston Churchill's famous maxim - when your going through Hell - keep going!
Not the time to drop the Captain but time to change course, proceedures and policy.
Liberal Democrats need to be mindful of this. An election in 2015 is certain, but the poll rating of the party in 2015 is not fixed , it may be 10% or it may be higher or lower. If domestic economic Growth can be increased, a major European Crisis averted, Mass Unemployment kept at bay and the deficit reduced in a fair way then the Coalition will have a defendable record.
Party Unity is key and team work essential. We are heading for the iceberg for sure on our present course and it would be wise to change course for safer waters. A Change of Captain? - better to have a meeting of the crew and the passengers and ask the captain to make the essential changes now.
Vince Cable to take a more prominent role to promote economic growth - preferably as Chancellor or if not as Deputy Prime Minister and economic supremo with Clegg as Party Leader as Business Secretary.
Rising Stars like Jo Swinson to enter the Cabinet (definately not pro-tories like David Laws!)
I believe that there is still common ground between radical Liberal Democrats and reforming Conservatives about the need for ending bureaucracy and government waste - which exploded under Labour. Yet so far the Conservatives have been too ready to use reforms to as a cover for ideological warfare - scapping bodies and stripping back worker rights.
Even on the questions of Lords Reform and Electoral Reform there is more consensus behind the scenes that evident. Conservatives do want to see moderate and evolutionary reform and would probably support a hybrid chamber with elected Lords and appointed Lords. Boundary Commission changes could be redone with a focus on reducing safe seats and increasing marginals and with the issue of proportionality of representation ie seats reflecting votes at the heart.
Liberal Democrats would support the creation of a new generation of entrepreneurs amongst the current lost generation of neets and older workers forced to work beyond pension age. Liberal Democrats believe in ordinary citizens owning their own property, running their own lives and not being dependent on the state or in the clutches of private landlords.
