Thursday 28 June 2012

Lib Dem 2015 Roll Call of Doom

As has been said before, 2 years in and the writing is on the wall.

2015 will see a Britain in the depth of a Coalition enhanced Economic Depression with the Lib Dems blamed by everyone. Public Opinion is now fixed and the following decent Liberal Democrats will be leaving Parliament in the 2015 election (according to Electoral Calculus .co.uk). This will see the Lib Dems reduced from 57 MPs to 17. The biggest Liberal reverse since 1924.

  1. Simon Hughes
  2. Alan Beith
  3. John Hemming
  4. David Ward
  5. Sarah Teather
  6. Stephen Williams
  7. Gordon Birtwhistle
  8. Julian Huppert
  9. Tom Brake
  10. Mark Hunter
  11. Martin Horwood
  12. Duncan Hames
  13. Dan Rogerson
  14. Annette Brooke
  15. Stephen Lloyd
  16. Chris Hunhe
  17. Lynne Featherstone
  18. Greg Mullholland
  19. John Leech
  20. Simon Wright
  21. Ian Swales
  22. Lorely Burt
  23. David Heath
  24. Stephen Gilbert
  25. Andrew George
  26. Paul Burstow
  27. Jeremy Brown
  28. Adrian Sanders
  29. Tessa Munt
  30. Roger Williams
  31. Jenny Wilmott
  32. Robert Smith
  33. Alan Reid
  34. Michael Moore
  35. John Thurso
  36. Jo Swinson
  37. Michael Crockart
  38. Malcolm Bruce
  39. Danny Alexander 
Although Nick Clegg is not on this list, he surely will be facing his own "Portillo Moment" on election night 2015, which people will tune in for as they did in 1997 for Michael Portillo.

Unless these Liberal Democrat MP's vote this Tory Government (Lib Dem policies only count for 40% of the Coalition Programme, not the 75% claimed) down - the General Public will never forgive the party and we will see the Party split into a tiny rump of "Wee Free MP's" , and two groups of Pro-Tory and Pro-Labour MPs in the aftermath of the political bloodbath.









































The Boundary Commission - The Greatest Tory Gerrymandering since the Rotten Boroughs of 1831

I can't believe that democrats in the country at large and in the commons are prepared to let the politically rigged constituency boundaries smash democratic freedom in this country. The electoral analysis website electoralcalculus.co.uk shows that abolition of 50 seats and loss of 50 MP's would leave the Conservative Party with 297 MP's just 3 MP's short of a majority and in a strengthened position in the commons.
Just look at the 17 Liberal Democrat MP's who adversely affected by boundary changes.

Full analysis here

 http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2013.html

CAMERON'S LIB DEM HIT LIST
  • Jenny Wilmott
  • Dan Rogerson
  • Malcolm Bruce
  • Charles Kennedy
  • Tim Farron
  • David Ward
  • Gordon Birtwhistle
  • Tom Brake
  • Annette Brooke
  • Jo Swinson
  • Greg Mullholland
  • Norman Baker
  • John Leech
  • Mike Hancock
  • Ian Swales
  • Paul Burstow
  • Tessa Munt
CAMERON'S LABOUR HIT LIST (you couldn't make this up)

  • Liam Byrne
  • Tessa Jowell
  • Gordon Brown
  • Hillary Benn
  • Andy Burnham
  • John Cryer
  • Michael Meacher
  • David Blunkett
  • Chuka Umunna
  • Tom Watson
 CAMERON'S TORY HIT LIST (anyone spotted a pattern here)

  • Bill Cash
  • Ken Clarke
  • Nadine Dorries
  • Zac Goldsmith
  • Priti Patel
CAMERON'S GREEN HIT LIST (what a surprise)

  • Caroline Lucas
THIS IS POLITICAL GERRYMANDERING!

The Conservatives are ensuring that the 600 constituencies will be short of 50 constituencies in all parts of Britain (Wales loses 10 seats, Scotland 7, North of England 13, Midlands 5) whilst only 1 consitutency lost in the Tory Heartlands of the South and South East.

This will leave the Conservatives free if the 2010 result were repeated to patch up a deal with the Ulster Unionists and run the country, on 36% of the vote.

Imagine if the SNP get their way and Scotland leaves the Union. People in England, Wales and Northern Ireland would face a Conservative dominated South of England overpowering the rest of the country.

Those MPs who are being targetted by this anti-democratic government ought to use this chance to vote the  government down and unthrone Cameron during the Olympics to give him a taste of unemployment. 



Tuesday 19 June 2012

Time for a rapid exit



The Coalition is now approaching the half way point and nearly all Liberal Democrats are feeling trapped in a loveless marriage with the devil. As we watch Sleeping with the Enemy, and remind ourselves of Maggie Thatcher's horrible maxim - TINA (There is no alternative) we can look at the real options for the party. At the moment for Lib Dems we are at the half way point of crossing the Red Sea led by our leader Moses Clegg, too scary to turn back.





OPTION 1 - Make the Coalition work - (Consumate the marriage ugh!) agree with everything the Tories want : RESULT:  Tories win next , we lose (unless we come to an electoral arrangement which will split and destroy the party and see the Lib Dems assimilated into the Tory BORG -probably Nick Clegg's masterplan)

OPTION 2 - Separate Beds - (Sham Marriage & Domestic Violence) - This what we are currently headed for. Lib Dems stay in government but backslide, carp, grumble and undermine. Pisses of the Tories and causes them internal quabbles - This is a Vince Cable/Tim Farron approach and has been carried out by Clegg when Lib Dems stage absenteeism walkouts. It  has some benefits but ultimately the Public will have the same verdict at the 2015 polls - since a true economic recovery is now falstalled and the Lib Dems will get the blame from a vengeful public and hostile Tories and Labour. RESULT
Labour Victory : Lib Dem annihilation

OPTION 3: - Trial Separation:  - We move out of the Coalition House - i.e Cabinet onto the backbenches of opposition and start to establish an independent identity - whilst still honouring our part of the coalition agreement and not voting down the government in a confidence motion, but voting against them on areas we dissagree. This would allow the party to get short money and rebalance itself as a opposition party to austerity, however it might destabilise the markets and antagonise everyone but our supporters and voters. It would allow us to hold power in the commons on an issue by issue vote but in likelihood would lead to either a renegotiation of the Coalition agreement on a more favourable terms or an election in 2013. RESULT : Hung Parliament/ Minority Labour Government, loss of 50-70% of Lib Dem MPS

OPTION 4:  Divorce -and secret moving in with Labour  - ie a progressive coup d'etat. Secret negotiations with Labour which would see the party crossing the floor and putting Ed Milliband at the head of a minority Labour- Lib Dem Growth/Fairness Coalition. This would need to be backed up by an electoral pact so if the Conservatives voted down the government it would face a uphill fight in the country.  This would involve a dramatic shock for David Cameron perhaps during the Olympic Games where he would be ousted from No 10 in dramatic fashion. RESULT :Likelihood of an election in 2013/4 with a LIB-LAB landslide and possible increase in Lib Dem MPs to 80-100. This would create and outcry in Tory ranks not seen since the 1910 Lords Crisis and might see an end of Cameron's Leadership and perhaps Clegg's too. In likelihood, this would be seen a Lib Dem treachery at the extreme (that's how the Murdoch Press would see it) and secret negotiations with Labour would quickly split the coalition and the party with Labour dangling the bait to great effect. However it has happened before : Think of Thatcher's Fall in 1990, Ken Livingstone taking over the GLC in 1981 and the Fall of Asquith in 1915. Would be brilliant if it worked and a last throw of the cards for the Lib Dems.







Wednesday 6 June 2012

The Uses of Monarchy



In Ancient Rome it was bread and circuses, Karl Marx thought that Religion served the purpose of distraction, in 21st Century Britain the Monarchy still has it's uses. For David Cameron's Conservatives the distraction season has arrived just in the nick of time. The Royal Diamond Jubilee is hoped to create a feel good factor which failed to appear with economic recovery. Troubled Tory Politicians like Jeremy Hunt, Baroness Warsi et al have special reasons to be celebrating 3 months of political amnesia. Cameron can now hope that a cabinet reshuffle might be delayed until the Autumn. However the political car crash of a coalition split is quietly rumbling in the distance. Growth is the key issue. If the feelgood factor can raise the British spirits and stimulate growth and a european crisis can be managed into the distance then just possibly the probable coalition crash might be averted. Much more likely is a crisis of conscience on the part of coalition Liberal Democrats about the fairness and growth agenda already on the cards since Vince Cable's secret talks with Labour
A summer Euro Crisis could provide cover for further justification for continuing the coalition, however Tory eurosceptics will cheer and foam at the mouth during such an event and true Lib Dems will mutter and ring their hands at the inaction. Without a real Growth and Fairness agenda it is very unlikely that Lib Dems like Tim Farron, Vince Cable, Matthew Oakeshot and Simon Hughes could continue to support the coalition in it's present form.
The question of disengagement is a tricky one, a big split would end the coalition and split the Lib Dems. Better perhaps that an honourable figure like Vince Cable leave for the backbenches to act like a voice in the wilderness to guide the coalition into the light