Friday, 14 March 2014

The Crimea Crisis - understanding Russia and opposing aggression

It is 100 years from the First World War, where an ethnic dispute in Eastern Europe dragged the world into war. It is 75 years since Nazi & Soviet
aggression in Eastern Europe dragged the world into the Second World War. All nations must look calmly and with understanding and determination that aggression is not rewarded and that minorities, democracy and self-determination are protected.
Russia's concerns about Ukrainian fascists are not without substance, however the Use of Military force to annex and intimidate democracies is not acceptable.
I have 3 suggestions to steer a course of respect and cooperation between Russia and the World.
a) An acknowledgement that Russia's concerns are legitimate and that fast moving events in Kiev have alarmed all policy makers.
b) A commitment by Kiev to exclude and confront Ukrainian Fascists such as Svoboda.
c) A recognition in the UK, US and Europe about the alarm the rise of Ultra Right and Anti-European "Freedom" type parties  such as Golden Dawn in Greece, National Front in France, UKIP in the UK and others in Hungary which is being perceived as a Rise in Fascism in Europe by Russia.
d) Real concern in Moscow about the potential of Ultra-Nationalists taking power in Russia to mirror the events in Ukraine.
d) A realisation that Europe and America signed up for a Power-Sharing agreement in Kiev which then collapsed when the Ukrainian president fled which caused the coming to power of Ukrainian democrats.

a) The US and Europe to table a proposal to seek Russian agreement that the UN Security Council approve the sending a UN Peace Keeping Force to Crimea to replace Russian(Militia) troops.
b) A UN plebiscite be held to approve Crimea move to International UN Control
c) Sending of UN Peacekeepers to Ukraine/Russia border

a) An international UN commission to establish the future status of the Crimea.
b) Economic and Asset freezing if Russia opposes a negotiated settlement to the Issue.
c) If Russia annexes further Ukraine territory and refuses negotiated agreement, negotiations opened to allow accession of the Ukraine to partial associate NATO membership to allow military defence of a defined core-military defence area for the Western part of Ukraine covering Ukrainian speaking majority areas.
d) Ultimately a deal with Russia which acknowledges the fact of the need to protect Russian minorities might include a trade off on Syria where Russia would support real efforts to change the Assad regime and help humanitarian efforts in the Syrian Civil War while preventing the outbreak of a Ukraine Civil War.

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