Sunday, 17 March 2013

Sunday Telegraph predicts Lib Dem Revival

An opinion poll commissioned by the Sunday Telegraph points to the Lib-Dems achieving 18% at the 2015 General Election. It clearly shows a general revival in expectations of Lib Dem support in 2015 along with pressure on the Conservatives in 2015 from UKIP. Labour is the most likely winner in 2015, yet a party led by Ed Milliband is unlikely to command a majority of public confidence in 2015. With a strong showing from UKIP, the Conservative manifesto in 2015 will seek to appeal to UKIP voters just as the Labour manifesto will seek to attract disaffected Lib Dem voters. This positioning in the event of hung parliament will propell opinion into a Lib-Lab coalition with a Tory-UKIP opposition.

It may well be that Labour secures a Blairite Majority of 162 under First past the post, with Lib Dem support similar to the 1997-2000 period.

It is likely that the 2015-2020 period will show a Lib Dem-Green-labour alliance in opposition to Con-UKIP.

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