Tuesday, 19 June 2012
Time for a rapid exit
The Coalition is now approaching the half way point and nearly all Liberal Democrats are feeling trapped in a loveless marriage with the devil. As we watch Sleeping with the Enemy, and remind ourselves of Maggie Thatcher's horrible maxim - TINA (There is no alternative) we can look at the real options for the party. At the moment for Lib Dems we are at the half way point of crossing the Red Sea led by our leader Moses Clegg, too scary to turn back.
OPTION 1 - Make the Coalition work - (Consumate the marriage ugh!) agree with everything the Tories want : RESULT: Tories win next , we lose (unless we come to an electoral arrangement which will split and destroy the party and see the Lib Dems assimilated into the Tory BORG -probably Nick Clegg's masterplan)
OPTION 2 - Separate Beds - (Sham Marriage & Domestic Violence) - This what we are currently headed for. Lib Dems stay in government but backslide, carp, grumble and undermine. Pisses of the Tories and causes them internal quabbles - This is a Vince Cable/Tim Farron approach and has been carried out by Clegg when Lib Dems stage absenteeism walkouts. It has some benefits but ultimately the Public will have the same verdict at the 2015 polls - since a true economic recovery is now falstalled and the Lib Dems will get the blame from a vengeful public and hostile Tories and Labour. RESULT
Labour Victory : Lib Dem annihilation
OPTION 3: - Trial Separation: - We move out of the Coalition House - i.e Cabinet onto the backbenches of opposition and start to establish an independent identity - whilst still honouring our part of the coalition agreement and not voting down the government in a confidence motion, but voting against them on areas we dissagree. This would allow the party to get short money and rebalance itself as a opposition party to austerity, however it might destabilise the markets and antagonise everyone but our supporters and voters. It would allow us to hold power in the commons on an issue by issue vote but in likelihood would lead to either a renegotiation of the Coalition agreement on a more favourable terms or an election in 2013. RESULT : Hung Parliament/ Minority Labour Government, loss of 50-70% of Lib Dem MPS
OPTION 4: Divorce -and secret moving in with Labour - ie a progressive coup d'etat. Secret negotiations with Labour which would see the party crossing the floor and putting Ed Milliband at the head of a minority Labour- Lib Dem Growth/Fairness Coalition. This would need to be backed up by an electoral pact so if the Conservatives voted down the government it would face a uphill fight in the country. This would involve a dramatic shock for David Cameron perhaps during the Olympic Games where he would be ousted from No 10 in dramatic fashion. RESULT :Likelihood of an election in 2013/4 with a LIB-LAB landslide and possible increase in Lib Dem MPs to 80-100. This would create and outcry in Tory ranks not seen since the 1910 Lords Crisis and might see an end of Cameron's Leadership and perhaps Clegg's too. In likelihood, this would be seen a Lib Dem treachery at the extreme (that's how the Murdoch Press would see it) and secret negotiations with Labour would quickly split the coalition and the party with Labour dangling the bait to great effect. However it has happened before : Think of Thatcher's Fall in 1990, Ken Livingstone taking over the GLC in 1981 and the Fall of Asquith in 1915. Would be brilliant if it worked and a last throw of the cards for the Lib Dems.