Saturday, 14 July 2012

David Cameron,Stanley Baldwin and the Politics of the New Isolation

Stanley Baldwin
David Cameron

Which previous Tory politician does David Cameron remind you of ? - Go back along time and you find a David Cameron in the 1920's by the name of Stanley Baldwin. They both came from obscurity to seize the Conservative Leadership at a time of weakness in Traditional Conservative fortunes.

Cameron like Baldwin tried to change the Conservative Party and both men fell foul of the Conservative Press Barons. Stanley Baldwin like Cameron also turned his back on Europe at a time when a positive contribution by Britain would have prevented a meltdown in the European System.
In 1920's Europe - a system of economic weakness had been created by punitive wartime reparation payments and 1923 saw the collapse of the German Mark, while Britain led by Baldwin looked the other way. For the next few years a Conservative led Britain turned it's back on European problems, and followed an isolationist policy of protectionist tariffs and looked towards the British Empire. Baldwin's isolationist do nothing policy was followed by Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Nazi Germany and world war.

Germany endured hyperinflation which led to the preconditions for Nazi Germany, and it the legacy of the collapsed German Mark in 1923 which prevents German politicians of today taking the simple necessary measures to stabilise the current European Economy.

The Fear of this still stops Frankfurt Bankers fixing things

Today, David "Stanley" Cameron is hoping for peace in our time, and again has turned his back on European problems.
Europeans will either succeed in solving the problems of the Euro by creating a 2 speed Europe with a United European Superstate at it's centre which will gradually extend control. This new Europe will discriminate against British Interests, it will either be such a success that we will have wished we had joined, just like in 1963, and 1969 we had wished we had joined the EEC.
Will Britain be excluded from the Good New Europe?

Or the New Europe will be an authoritarian less democratic state with rigid controls and will threaten British Sovereignty and European freedoms in a way similar to Nazi Germany in 1933-39.

Will Britain be threatened by the Bad New Europe?

What if our European friends fail to sort out Europe's problems, the Euro will fail, and national currencies will  return and so will recrimination, blame, tariffs, border controls and nationalism. But also fear and all that comes with the politics of blame and fear. We only have to look at former Yugoslavia for what will be coming to the less stable parts of Europe and to 1930's Europe for the rest.

Could doing nothing lead to another Bosnia?

If the Eurozone fails Britain's exports to Europe which have been rising will suffer as all europeans will blame us for turning our backs and we will face tariff and standards barriers as well as consumer emnity. UK economic growth could collapse by 5-10%.

I leave the final word with US Economist Paul Klugman who is rapidly turning into the Maynard Keynes of his generation.

Will Liberals and Liberal Democrats shine the spotlight on Cameron's Politics of the New Isolation and get the relucant European British to help sort Europe to sort it's problems in a progressive collaborative and democratic way.

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